Quantifying Antiquity Integrated Constructibility Model (ICM)

Current scenario Imported workforce scenario
Model integrity Validated
Scenario comparison Comparison ran
Evidence Support for Your Inputs Unknown

Analysis Subject: The Great Pyramid of Giza

Quantifying Antiquity's ICM is a transparent engineering model developed to evaluate competing construction scenarios for the Great Pyramid of Giza using published evidence and documented assumptions. Rather than illustrating theories, it quantitatively tests whether those scenarios remain internally consistent when all engineering, logistical, material, and demographic dependencies are evaluated together as a complete system.

Explore the conventional construction model of the Great Pyramid. Change one or more assumptions and run the model to see how those changes affect the results. Every scenario is evaluated using the same integrated calculations, so you can compare different assumptions on equal terms.

The baseline values represent the model's documented starting scenario. Leave them unchanged to reproduce the baseline, or adjust them to test how alternative assumptions affect labor, logistics, resources, and closure.

Change the story, watch the math, and review each scenario's results in detail below.

Scenario Input Unit Baseline Scenario Value
Build duration
ⓘ

Specifies the total time available to complete construction. The baseline reproduces the reference scenario used throughout this analysis.

Increasing the duration reduces the average amount of work that must be completed each day, while shortening it requires a faster pace of construction. This assumption influences labor requirements, logistics, resource consumption, and the model's overall ability to close.

 years 20
Agricultural surplus available to the state
ⓘ

Specifies the percentage of agricultural production that can be redirected from ordinary consumption to support state activities such as large construction projects.

Increasing this value makes more food and resources available to sustain workers away from agriculture. Decreasing it limits the labor that can be supported without reducing the food supply available to the wider population.

 share 0.25
Prime-age male cohort share
ⓘ

Specifies the percentage of the total population belonging to the working-age, physically fit male cohort.

Increasing this assumption expands the potential labor pool available to the state, while reducing it limits the number of people who can contribute to agriculture, transport, construction, and other essential activities throughout the model.

 share 0.24
Agricultural workforce share
ⓘ

Specifies the percentage of the prime-age male cohort required to remain in agriculture to produce the food needed by the population.

Higher values leave fewer workers available for construction and supporting industries. Lower values assume a more productive agricultural system that can feed the population with fewer workers, allowing more labor to be reassigned elsewhere.

 share 0.8
Imported workforce share
ⓘ

Specifies the percentage of the construction workforce supplied from outside Egypt rather than drawn from the resident population.

Increasing this assumption supplements the domestic labor force and reduces pressure on the local workforce. It allows users to explore how outside labor would influence the model's capacity and closure.

 share 0
Sustained pulling force per worker
ⓘ

Specifies the average pulling force that one worker can maintain over extended periods while hauling heavy loads.

Increasing this value allows each worker to contribute more pulling force, reducing the number of haulers required for a given load. Lower values require larger hauling teams and increase the supporting labor needed throughout the transport system.

 kg sustained pull/man 30
Granite sled friction coefficient — unimproved surface
ⓘ

Specifies the friction between a loaded granite sled and an unimproved hauling surface. Lower values indicate easier movement, while higher values require greater pulling force.

Changing this assumption directly affects the effort needed to transport heavy granite blocks and influences hauling crews, support requirements, and overall construction capacity.

 coefficient 0.4
Support workers per hauler
ⓘ

Specifies how many additional workers are required to support each active hauler. Support workers include the people needed to sustain transport operations rather than those directly pulling the load.

Increasing this value raises the total workforce required for transport. Lower values assume a leaner support system and reduce the overall labor burden associated with hauling operations.

 support people/hauler 0.5
Reset to baseline
Show percentages

Scenario Summary

Overall result

The model does not close.

Under the assumptions you set, the kingdom cannot carry the project's full burden, and the population cannot keep supplying and replacing the workforce it needs — so the project does not close.

This scenario makes the assumptions more favorable to the conventional model. The project's share of the non-farm male labor pool falls from 61.6% to 55.5%, still above the 25% single-project mobilization threshold. National Closure is unchanged: it does not close. Demographic Closure changed under this scenario: it does not close.

Why — both labor tests must hold, and they are not the only requirement

National closure Does not close

Can the civilization sustain the project's total labor, agricultural, material, logistical, and support burden while still carrying on its other necessary functions?

Unchanged — this test does not close: above the 25% single-project mobilization threshold (workbook status: "EXCEEDS SINGLE-PROJECT MOBILIZATION CEILING").

Demographic closure Does not close

Can the population repeatedly supply and replace the workers the project needs across the full construction period — covering attrition, aging out, and cohort replacement?

Changed: "DOES NOT CLOSE - SUSTAINED MOBILIZATION AT THE SCALE OF MAXIMUM DOCUMENTED CAPACITY, HELD CONTINUOUSLY" → "DOES NOT CLOSE - SUSTAINED MOBILIZATION AT 85% OF MAXIMUM DOCUMENTED CAPACITY, HELD CONTINUOUSLY FOR 20-30 YEARS" — sustained mobilization stands below the kingdom's maximum documented capacity, but is held continuously for the whole build rather than levied once. This test still does not close.

Would more workers fix it? Not necessarily. Every additional worker must also be fed, housed, moved, and supported, so more workers enlarge the support population and the food, materials, and logistics the kingdom must supply. Past a point, added labor grows the very burden national closure measures faster than it closes the gap — which is why raising the workforce alone need not produce closure.

Labor and demographic closure are necessary, not sufficient. The construction explanation must also clear the separately governed material, settlement, and capability findings: timber throughput and supply, rope and fiber production, copper supply, settlement capacity, granite ground bearing, granite loading stability, and granite restraint and refloating. A scenario that improves the labor percentage does not alter timber, rope, copper, settlement, ground-bearing, or vessel-stability requirements unless it changes the inputs governing those findings.

Scenario Assumptions
  • Imported workforce share: 0% → 10%
Propagated Changes
  • Project labor as share of the NON-FARM male labor pool: falls from 61.6% to 55.5% — an improvement, still above the 25% single-project mobilization threshold (recalculated because the Imported workforce share assumption changed)
  • Project workforce vs. Weni mobilization maximum — concurrent: falls from 94.7% to 85.2% — an improvement
  • Project workforce vs. Weni mobilization maximum — rostered: falls from 108.2% to 97.4% — an improvement
Unchanged Results
  • Total project-dependent population — these assumptions do not reduce the number of people the project commits
  • National mobilization test

How to read changed values: Scenario Assumptions are the inputs you set. Propagated Changes are engineering quantities the model recalculated because your assumptions changed. Derived Closure Metrics are the registered test values computed from them. A changed value downstream of your inputs is expected propagation, not an edit and not a defect.

Numerical outcomes, human burden, and evidence compatibility are separate assessments; a numerical result never implies historical support. Exact values, workbook references, and provenance remain in the technical sections below.

Scenario Details

Scenario Assessment

Numerical result
46 of 155 outputs changed under this scenario. Individual test outcomes appear in Closure Results; each is a single numerical test against one documented threshold.
Total project-dependent population
533233.8571428572 baseline → 533233.8571428572 under this scenario (Model_04!B134); the full breakdown is in the Human Burden table under Scenario Effects.
Evidence compatibility
Unknown
Overall assessment
Not available. A scenario can close numerically while relying on unsupported or unsustainable input assumptions. Numerical test outcomes and evidence compatibility are reported separately and are not combined into a credibility claim: supported input ranges are registered for only one lever (build duration), and no aggregate compatibility measure is defined.

Available Scenarios

Imported workforce scenario

Current scenario
browser-imported-labor
Evidence Support for Your Inputs
Unknown
Assumptions changed
1
Scenario description

Predefined imported-labor review scenario.

  • Imported workforce scenario Selected
    Evidence Support for Your Inputs
    Unknown
    Assumptions changed
    1
    Scenario description

    Predefined imported-labor review scenario.

Compatibility Notes

What the scenario validator recorded for the current scenario's inputs.

  • info This target has no repository-supported allowed range yet, so range conformance is unknown.
  • warning Imported labor may change domestic closure accounting, but it does not remove food, water, housing, sanitation, transport, or other total-system burdens.
  • info This target participates in a coordinated dependency group; no companion override is required by the current registry.

Download Scenario

Exports this scenario with its inputs, results, explanation, source provenance and workbook identity, plus a .sha256 sidecar. Two files are saved.

Scenario digest 7bce607863d6a74567e395f68e1f2d975c54092205f44d9223380b712dcd1f93

The digest is reproducible: re-running the same inputs on this model produces it again. It is not proof of origin — the receipt and its hash are generated without a secret, so a matching pair shows two files agree, not where either came from.

Closure Results

Technical detail — expand for tables, workbook references, and exact values

The workbook's closure-test outcomes, recomputed under the current scenario. Each status is a single numerical test against one documented threshold - not an overall credibility or sustainability verdict. Evidence compatibility of the scenario's inputs is assessed separately in Scenario Details.

National Closure

Measure Output type Baseline value Current scenario value Change status Workbook reference
National mobilization test Status EXCEEDS SINGLE-PROJECT MOBILIZATION CEILING EXCEEDS SINGLE-PROJECT MOBILIZATION CEILING Unchanged NationalClosure_41!B14
Project labor as share of the NON-FARM male labor pool Metric 0.6164306640625001 0.5547875976562501 Changed NationalClosure_41!B13

Demographic Closure

Measure Output type Baseline value Current scenario value Change status Workbook reference
Documented mobilization limit test Status APPROACHING THE MAXIMUM DOCUMENTED MOBILIZATION - AND HELD CONTINUOUSLY RATHER THAN LEVIED ONCE BELOW THE MAXIMUM DOCUMENTED MOBILIZATION - BUT AT 85% OF ITS SCALE, HELD CONTINUOUSLY FOR THE BUILD Changed DemographicClosure_46!B35
Demographic closure verdict Conclusion DOES NOT CLOSE - SUSTAINED MOBILIZATION AT THE SCALE OF MAXIMUM DOCUMENTED CAPACITY, HELD CONTINUOUSLY DOES NOT CLOSE - SUSTAINED MOBILIZATION AT 85% OF MAXIMUM DOCUMENTED CAPACITY, HELD CONTINUOUSLY FOR 20-30 YEARS Changed DemographicClosure_46!B38
Project workforce vs. Weni mobilization maximum — concurrent Metric 0.9468375 0.85215375 Changed DemographicClosure_46!B32
Project workforce vs. Weni mobilization maximum — rostered Metric 1.0821 0.97389 Changed DemographicClosure_46!B33

Constructability Subsystems

Every engineering subsystem is held to the same architecture: baseline vs scenario values, workbook traceability, propagated results, and — where the workbook defines one — a closure test. Each panel states honestly how far that reaches today; readiness is a recorded migration fact, not a score.

National Closure

Evaluated closure test

Fully migrated: the Test 1 metric and status recompute under every scenario with workbook traceability.

Evaluated in the closure tables above; scenario movement appears in the Scenario Summary.

Workbook test: NationalClosure_41!B14 against the 25% single-project mobilization threshold.

Demographic Closure

Evaluated closure test

Fully migrated: the Weni-maximum metrics, Test C status, and closure verdict recompute under every scenario.

Evaluated in the closure tables above; scenario movement appears in the Scenario Summary.

Workbook test: DemographicClosure_46!B38 against the maximum documented mobilization record.

Timber

Migrated — propagates, no closure test yet

The TimberLabor_40 labor chain and BargeTimber_43 hull-timber feed are migrated, emitted with workbook traceability, and recompute under scenarios (build duration reaches them).

Missing before this becomes an evaluated closure section: No workbook closure test exists for timber. The off-site labor chain that carries timber labor into the total project-dedicated population enters Model_04!B134 through the sourced constant Model_04!D133, so recomputed timber labor does not yet feed back into the closure totals. TimberSystem_31 (stock/replacement) and IERRampTimber_38 are not migrated; TimberLabor_40!B6 consumes IERRampTimber_38!B31 as a sourced value. No timber-specific scenario levers are registered.

The workbook itself gates TimberSystem_31 as diagnostic-only (SRC-METHOD-TIMBER-DIAG; readiness review rejected M3 integration pending OPEN-TIMBER-* items), so a timber closure test would first have to exist in the workbook.

Measure Baseline value Scenario value Change status Why it changed Workbook reference
TOTAL TIMBER PER YEAR 4130.476955143621 4130.476955143621 Unchanged TimberLabor_40!B7
Barge hull timber, felled (Wave 5 feed) - native acacia, yard-built 80.64869603331141 80.64869603331141 Unchanged TimberLabor_40!B8
Subtotal, direct timber labor 819 819 Unchanged TimberLabor_40!B16
Standing acacia felled (incl. conversion waste) 1129.0817444663596 1129.0817444663596 Unchanged BargeTimber_43!B19

Copper & Resource Consumption

Not migrated — labels only

Copper appears only as labor headcount lines (Model_04!B129, WorkforceLedger_05!D14) inside sourced constants; their labels are preserved.

Missing before this becomes an evaluated closure section: The copper computation chain is not migrated: no engine module derives mine/smelt/transport labor, no demand figure is computed, and no comparison against the Bir Nasib output ceiling (SRC-BIRNASIB, 5,000-5,500 t all-time) exists anywhere in the engine. Fuel/woodland coupling for smelting is likewise unmigrated.

SRC-BIRNASIB carries the documented ceiling; the workbook's copper-chain rows live in Model_04 and would need dedicated module migration before any copper closure claim.

Scenario Effects

Technical detail — expand for tables, workbook references, and exact values

Scenario Analysis Detail

Scenario analysis status
Completed successfully
Model integrity
Validated
Assumptions changed
1
Changed-output count
46
Unchanged-output count
109
Total outputs evaluated
155

Changed Inputs

Label Baseline value Scenario value Change status Unit
Imported workforce share 0 0.1 changed share

Human Burden

The people this scenario commits, as the workbook's own outputs report them. Direct workers are only part of the commitment: the total project-dependent population includes the support population required to feed and sustain them.

Measure Baseline value Current scenario value Change status Workbook reference
Direct standing workforce (concurrent)
Project standing mobilization (concurrent) 47341.875 42607.6875 Changed DemographicClosure_46!B31
Rostered project workforce
On-site rostered total 47316 47316 Unchanged WorkforceLedger_05!C18
Off-site dedicated labor, rostered 49613 49613 Unchanged WorkforceLedger_05!C20
Project-dedicated LABOR (rostered, all depts) 100455.0 100455.0 Unchanged NationalClosure_41!B7
Support population sustaining the project
Feedback-solved food support population | Rostered labor | FoodFeedback_28 261803.70374236684 261803.70374236684 Unchanged DiagnosticIntegration_35!E5
Total project-dependent population
TOTAL PROJECT-DEDICATED POPULATION 533233.8571428572 533233.8571428572 Unchanged Model_04!B134
Population shares in the closure tests
Project labor as share of the NON-FARM male labor pool 0.6164306640625001 0.5547875976562501 Changed NationalClosure_41!B13
Project workforce vs. Weni mobilization maximum — concurrent 0.9468375 0.85215375 Changed DemographicClosure_46!B32
Project workforce vs. Weni mobilization maximum — rostered 1.0821 0.97389 Changed DemographicClosure_46!B33

Changed Closure Outputs

Numerical recomputation only: these values show how the registered closure outputs move under the scenario's inputs. Whether those inputs are evidence-supported is reported separately in Scenario Details.

Changed closure-output count
5
Measure Baseline value Scenario value Why it changed Workbook reference
Project labor as share of the NON-FARM male labor pool 0.6164306640625001 0.5547875976562501 Recalculated because the Imported workforce share assumption changed NationalClosure_41!B13
Project workforce vs. Weni mobilization maximum — concurrent 0.9468375 0.85215375 Recalculated — a downstream engineering consequence of your assumption changes DemographicClosure_46!B32
Project workforce vs. Weni mobilization maximum — rostered 1.0821 0.97389 Recalculated — a downstream engineering consequence of your assumption changes DemographicClosure_46!B33
Documented mobilization limit test APPROACHING THE MAXIMUM DOCUMENTED MOBILIZATION - AND HELD CONTINUOUSLY RATHER THAN LEVIED ONCE BELOW THE MAXIMUM DOCUMENTED MOBILIZATION - BUT AT 85% OF ITS SCALE, HELD CONTINUOUSLY FOR THE BUILD Recalculated — a downstream engineering consequence of your assumption changes DemographicClosure_46!B35
Demographic closure verdict DOES NOT CLOSE - SUSTAINED MOBILIZATION AT THE SCALE OF MAXIMUM DOCUMENTED CAPACITY, HELD CONTINUOUSLY DOES NOT CLOSE - SUSTAINED MOBILIZATION AT 85% OF MAXIMUM DOCUMENTED CAPACITY, HELD CONTINUOUSLY FOR 20-30 YEARS Recalculated — a downstream engineering consequence of your assumption changes DemographicClosure_46!B38

Evidence Identity

Technical detail — expand for tables, workbook references, and exact values

Evidence Header

Workbook version
v0.92
Baseline tag
v0.64-baseline
Evidence Details
Workbook SHA-256
4c7191452c0f8bd9c8ade1259e52f53b7b52817d69dd624c0b1c53ea7981580e

Workbook Findings

Technical detail — expand for tables, workbook references, and exact values

Workbook Findings

All 155 outputs computed by the engine, grouped by domain. Labels are preserved from the workbook. Expand a domain to inspect the individual results.

Workforce & Population (12)
Label Baseline value Current scenario value Change status Workbook reference
Share of adjusted effective labor pool 0.24761904761904763 0.24761904761904763 Unchanged Model_04!B12
Share of adjusted effective labor pool 0.9142857142857143 0.9142857142857143 Unchanged Model_04!C12
Share of adjusted effective labor pool 1.2 1.2 Unchanged Model_04!D12
TOTAL PROJECT-DEDICATED POPULATION 533233.8571428572 533233.8571428572 Unchanged Model_04!B134
River/harbor corridor [Wave 6, bodies only] 743.0 743.0 Unchanged Model_04!B135
Domestic/process water included through WaterFeedback_21 | FoodSystem_13 capacity check | PASS / lower-bound | OPEN / lower-bound | Millers / bakers / brewers PASS PASS Unchanged PersonCategoryMatrix_22!J17
REQUIRED SUPPORT SUBTOTAL 25299 25299 Unchanged VillageSufficiency_39!B11
Grain transport 150 150 Unchanged WorkforceLedger_05!C16
On-site rostered total 47316 47316 Unchanged WorkforceLedger_05!C18
Off-site dedicated labor, rostered 49613 49613 Unchanged WorkforceLedger_05!C20
Off-site dedicated labor, rostered 12360 12360 Unchanged WorkforceLedger_05!D20
Total project-dedicated population 533233.8571428572 533233.8571428572 Unchanged WorkforceLedger_05!C21
Closure Results (76)
Label Baseline value Current scenario value Change status Workbook reference
Current partial project-dedicated population | Required to close 281642.85714285716 281642.85714285716 Unchanged ClosureRequirements_15!B5
Share of high-end 1.6M Old Kingdom population | Required to close 0.17602678571428573 0.17602678571428573 Unchanged ClosureRequirements_15!B6
Current model vs 150k screen | 150,000 project-dedicated people 1.8776190476190477 1.8776190476190477 Unchanged ClosureRequirements_15!B8
Share of 1.6M kingdom 0.03125 0.03125 Unchanged ClosureRequirements_15!B15
Share of 1.6M kingdom 0.046875 0.046875 Unchanged ClosureRequirements_15!B16
ClosureRequirements_15!B17 0.0625 0.0625 Unchanged ClosureRequirements_15!B17
ClosureRequirements_15!B18 0.078125 0.078125 Unchanged ClosureRequirements_15!B18
ClosureRequirements_15!B19 0.09375 0.09375 Unchanged ClosureRequirements_15!B19
ClosureRequirements_15!B20 0.125 0.125 Unchanged ClosureRequirements_15!B20
Project rostered labor excl. annual-yield farmers (live) 47341.875 42607.6875 Changed ClosureSensitivity_45!B4
ClosureSensitivity_45!B9 0.9862890624999998 0.8876601562499998 Changed ClosureSensitivity_45!B9
ClosureSensitivity_45!C9 0.7397167968750001 0.6657451171875002 Changed ClosureSensitivity_45!C9
ClosureSensitivity_45!B10 0.8966264204545453 0.8069637784090908 Changed ClosureSensitivity_45!B10
ClosureSensitivity_45!C10 0.6724698153409092 0.6052228338068183 Changed ClosureSensitivity_45!C10
ClosureSensitivity_45!D10 0.5379758522727273 0.4841782670454545 Changed ClosureSensitivity_45!D10
ClosureSensitivity_45!B11 0.8219075520833332 0.7397167968749999 Changed ClosureSensitivity_45!B11
ClosureSensitivity_45!C11 0.6164306640625001 0.5547875976562501 Changed ClosureSensitivity_45!C11
ClosureSensitivity_45!D11 0.49314453125 0.443830078125 Changed ClosureSensitivity_45!D11
ClosureSensitivity_45!B12 0.7586838942307691 0.6828155048076923 Changed ClosureSensitivity_45!B12
ClosureSensitivity_45!C12 0.5690129206730771 0.5121116286057693 Changed ClosureSensitivity_45!C12
ClosureSensitivity_45!D12 0.45521033653846155 0.40968930288461536 Changed ClosureSensitivity_45!D12
ClosureSensitivity_45!B13 0.7044921874999999 0.6340429687499999 Changed ClosureSensitivity_45!B13
ClosureSensitivity_45!C13 0.5283691406250001 0.4755322265625001 Changed ClosureSensitivity_45!C13
ClosureSensitivity_45!D13 0.4226953124999999 0.38042578124999993 Changed ClosureSensitivity_45!D13
ClosureSensitivity_45!B14 0.6575260416666665 0.5917734374999999 Changed ClosureSensitivity_45!B14
ClosureSensitivity_45!C14 0.4931445312500001 0.4438300781250001 Changed ClosureSensitivity_45!C14
ClosureSensitivity_45!D14 0.394515625 0.3550640625 Changed ClosureSensitivity_45!D14
ClosureSensitivity_45!B18 0.7890312499999999 0.7101281249999999 Changed ClosureSensitivity_45!B18
ClosureSensitivity_45!C18 0.5917734375000001 0.53259609375 Changed ClosureSensitivity_45!C18
ClosureSensitivity_45!B19 0.7173011363636362 0.6455710227272726 Changed ClosureSensitivity_45!B19
ClosureSensitivity_45!C19 0.5379758522727274 0.48417826704545464 Changed ClosureSensitivity_45!C19
ClosureSensitivity_45!B20 0.6575260416666665 0.5917734374999999 Changed ClosureSensitivity_45!B20
ClosureSensitivity_45!C20 0.4931445312500001 0.4438300781250001 Changed ClosureSensitivity_45!C20
DEMOGRAPHIC CLOSURE - SUSTAINED MOBILIZATION VS DOCUMENTED CAPACITY: can the kingdom survive the commitment? DEMOGRAPHIC CLOSURE - SUSTAINED MOBILIZATION VS DOCUMENTED CAPACITY: can the kingdom survive the commitment? DEMOGRAPHIC CLOSURE - SUSTAINED MOBILIZATION VS DOCUMENTED CAPACITY: can the kingdom survive the commitment? Unchanged DemographicClosure_46!A1
Old Kingdom population (Butzer anchor) 1600000 1600000 Unchanged DemographicClosure_46!B5
Prime-age male cohort 384000.0 384000.0 Unchanged DemographicClosure_46!B6
Ex-farmer Test 1 labor (rostered) 54105.0 48694.5 Changed DemographicClosure_46!B7
Median working span (death - entry) 17.5 17.5 Unchanged DemographicClosure_46!B8
Replacement multiplier (mortality only) 1.1428571428571428 1.1428571428571428 Unchanged DemographicClosure_46!B9
Build duration (live model lever) 20 20 Unchanged DemographicClosure_46!B10
Concurrent standing roster 47341.875 42607.6875 Changed DemographicClosure_46!B11
Standing share of prime-age cohort (concurrent) 0.1232861328125 0.11095751953125 Changed DemographicClosure_46!B14
Rostered share of prime-age cohort 0.1408984375 0.12680859375 Changed DemographicClosure_46!B15
Cross-reference: ex-farmer share of non-farm pool 0.6164306640625001 0.5547875976562501 Changed DemographicClosure_46!B16
Cumulative distinct men over build 54105.0 48694.5 Changed DemographicClosure_46!B19
Mortality replacements consumed over build 6763.125 6086.8125 Changed DemographicClosure_46!B20
Sensitivity: cumulative distinct men, 30-yr build 81157.5 73041.75 Changed DemographicClosure_46!B21
Sensitivity: replacements consumed, 30-yr build 33815.625 30434.0625 Changed DemographicClosure_46!B22
Annual project intake of fresh prime-age males 2705.25 2434.725 Changed DemographicClosure_46!B23
Annual maturing male cohort, kingdom-wide 21942.85714285714 21942.85714285714 Unchanged DemographicClosure_46!B24
Project share of every maturing male cohort 0.1232861328125 0.11095751953125 Changed DemographicClosure_46!B25
Reading ONE IN EIGHT OF EVERY MATURING MALE COHORT, NATIONALLY, EVERY YEAR, FOR THE WHOLE BUILD - FOR ONE MONUMENT'S NON-FARM DEPARTMENTS ALONE ONE IN EIGHT OF EVERY MATURING MALE COHORT, NATIONALLY, EVERY YEAR, FOR THE WHOLE BUILD - FOR ONE MONUMENT'S NON-FARM DEPARTMENTS ALONE Unchanged DemographicClosure_46!B26
Maximum documented OK mobilization (Weni levy) 50000 50000 Unchanged DemographicClosure_46!B29
Character of Weni levy EPISODIC - NATIONAL EMERGENCY POSTURE, KINGDOM-WIDE + FOREIGN AUXILIARIES, DISBANDED AFTER EACH CAMPAIGN EPISODIC - NATIONAL EMERGENCY POSTURE, KINGDOM-WIDE + FOREIGN AUXILIARIES, DISBANDED AFTER EACH CAMPAIGN Unchanged DemographicClosure_46!B30
Project standing mobilization (concurrent) 47341.875 42607.6875 Changed DemographicClosure_46!B31
Project workforce vs. Weni mobilization maximum — concurrent 0.9468375 0.85215375 Changed DemographicClosure_46!B32
Project workforce vs. Weni mobilization maximum — rostered 1.0821 0.97389 Changed DemographicClosure_46!B33
Character of project mobilization CONTINUOUS FOR 20-30 YEARS - DOMESTIC NON-FARM POOL ONLY - ARMY MUST STILL EXIST ON TOP CONTINUOUS FOR 20-30 YEARS - DOMESTIC NON-FARM POOL ONLY - ARMY MUST STILL EXIST ON TOP Unchanged DemographicClosure_46!B34
Documented mobilization limit test APPROACHING THE MAXIMUM DOCUMENTED MOBILIZATION - AND HELD CONTINUOUSLY RATHER THAN LEVIED ONCE BELOW THE MAXIMUM DOCUMENTED MOBILIZATION - BUT AT 85% OF ITS SCALE, HELD CONTINUOUSLY FOR THE BUILD Changed DemographicClosure_46!B35
Demographic closure verdict DOES NOT CLOSE - SUSTAINED MOBILIZATION AT THE SCALE OF MAXIMUM DOCUMENTED CAPACITY, HELD CONTINUOUSLY DOES NOT CLOSE - SUSTAINED MOBILIZATION AT 85% OF MAXIMUM DOCUMENTED CAPACITY, HELD CONTINUOUSLY FOR 20-30 YEARS Changed DemographicClosure_46!B38
Summary The conventional model requires the kingdom to hold mobilization at the scale of its maximum documented emergency levy as a permanent 20-30 year baseline, consuming one in every 8 maturing males, before the army, temples, trade, administration, or any other major state construction program receives any labor. Weni's levy was raised once and disbanded; this one cannot be. The conventional model requires the kingdom to hold mobilization at 85% of its maximum documented emergency levy as a permanent 20-30 year baseline, consuming one in every 9 maturing males, before the army, temples, trade, administration, or any other major state construction program receives any labor. Weni's levy was raised once and disbanded; this one cannot be. Changed DemographicClosure_46!B39
Scope rule CONTROL/VERDICT LAYER ONLY - THIS SHEET DOES NOT ADD BURDEN TO M3 CONTROL/VERDICT LAYER ONLY - THIS SHEET DOES NOT ADD BURDEN TO M3 Unchanged DemographicClosure_46!B41
Source caveats (flagged once, both generous) Weni is 6th Dynasty, ~200 years after Khufu (later, larger state sets the ceiling HIGHER); the figure is rhetorical and read at maximum (a higher Weni makes the pyramid look easier). Palermo Stone (Snefru: 7,000 Nubian captives, 200,000 cattle) confirms the expeditionary-levy character of the OK military - temporary levies, no professional standing army. Weni is 6th Dynasty, ~200 years after Khufu (later, larger state sets the ceiling HIGHER); the figure is rhetorical and read at maximum (a higher Weni makes the pyramid look easier). Palermo Stone (Snefru: 7,000 Nubian captives, 200,000 cattle) confirms the expeditionary-levy character of the OK military - temporary levies, no professional standing army. Unchanged DemographicClosure_46!B43
Share of kingdom 0.33327116071428575 0.33327116071428575 Unchanged KingdomCapacity_17!B16
Share of kingdom | Manual source input from SRC-BUTZER-POP 0.33327116071428575 0.33327116071428575 Unchanged KingdomCapacity_17!C16
Current model / 150k screen | Between 300,000 and 500,000 bands 3.554892380952381 3.554892380952381 Unchanged KingdomCapacity_17!B18
Current model / 150k screen | Capacity-band table below 3.554892380952381 3.554892380952381 Unchanged KingdomCapacity_17!C18
Excess above 150k screen | Between 300,000 and 500,000 bands 383233.85714285716 383233.85714285716 Unchanged KingdomCapacity_17!B19
Excess above 150k screen | Capacity-band table below 383233.85714285716 383233.85714285716 Unchanged KingdomCapacity_17!C19
Project-dedicated LABOR (rostered, all depts) 100455.0 100455.0 Unchanged NationalClosure_41!B7
Project-dedicated labor EXCLUDING annual-yield farmers (domestic, after imported-labor lever) 54105.0 48694.5 Changed NationalClosure_41!B8
Project labor as share of the prime-age male cohort 0.1408984375 0.12680859375 Changed NationalClosure_41!B12
Project labor as share of the NON-FARM male labor pool 0.6164306640625001 0.5547875976562501 Changed NationalClosure_41!B13
National mobilization test EXCEEDS SINGLE-PROJECT MOBILIZATION CEILING EXCEEDS SINGLE-PROJECT MOBILIZATION CEILING Unchanged NationalClosure_41!B14
Farm surplus share (lever) 0.25 0.25 Unchanged NationalClosure_41!B18
Non-farm male labor share 0.6164306640625001 0.5547875976562501 Changed NationalClosure_41!B25
Food System (6)
Label Baseline value Current scenario value Change status Workbook reference
Net surplus per active farmer after own household support 0.3252525252525249 0.3252525252525249 Unchanged FoodFeedback_28!B46
Total project-dedicated population if food loop passes 1603796.9070890173 1603796.9070890173 Unchanged FoodFeedback_28!B54
Required output per active farmer to preserve current farm net surplus share | Live value 1.9663299663299665 1.9663299663299665 Unchanged FoodFeedback_28!B58
Gross-output farmers implied by current net surplus share 181126.08890020655 181126.08890020655 Unchanged FoodFeedback_28!B62
Processing labor, total 24171 24171 Unchanged FoodSystem_13!B20
Food-processing labor total 24171 24171 Unchanged ProcessingFuelContainers_30!B14
Water & Sanitation (3)
Label Baseline value Current scenario value Change status Workbook reference
Combined first-order support labor 1128 1128 Unchanged SanitationMedical_29!B34
Combined first-order support labor 1960.6647935615977 1960.6647935615977 Unchanged SanitationMedical_29!C34
Combined first-order support labor 9803.323967807988 9803.323967807988 Unchanged SanitationMedical_29!D34
Timber & Transport (27)
Label Baseline value Current scenario value Change status Workbook reference
Crew (mass) 3.2 3.2 Unchanged BargeTimber_43!B7
Payload subtotal (excl. hull) 101.2 101.2 Unchanged BargeTimber_43!B9
Standing acacia felled (incl. conversion waste) 1129.0817444663596 1129.0817444663596 Unchanged BargeTimber_43!B19
Total active ramp-system crew 27.098131657063032 27.098131657063032 Unchanged RampSystem_32!B106
Total active ramp-system crew 108.09065828531514 108.09065828531514 Unchanged RampSystem_32!C106
Total active ramp-system crew 311.47197485594546 311.47197485594546 Unchanged RampSystem_32!D106
Total active ramp-system crew 622.9439497118909 622.9439497118909 Unchanged RampSystem_32!E106
Total material handled over build (m3) 212500.0 212500.0 Unchanged RampSystem_32!B109
Total material handled over build (m3) 1062500.0 1062500.0 Unchanged RampSystem_32!C109
Total material handled over build (m3) 3187500.0 3187500.0 Unchanged RampSystem_32!D109
Total material handled over build (m3) 6375000.0 6375000.0 Unchanged RampSystem_32!E109
Total material handled mass (t) 382500.0 382500.0 Unchanged RampSystem_32!B110
Total material handled mass (t) 1912500.0 1912500.0 Unchanged RampSystem_32!C110
Total material handled mass (t) 5737500.0 5737500.0 Unchanged RampSystem_32!D110
Total material handled mass (t) 11475000.0 11475000.0 Unchanged RampSystem_32!E110
Barge crews rostered 557.0 557.0 Unchanged RiverHarbor_47!B24
Harbor gangs rostered 140.0 140.0 Unchanged RiverHarbor_47!B26
Pilotage rostered 46.0 46.0 Unchanged RiverHarbor_47!B28
TOTAL RIVER/HARBOR ROSTERED 743.0 743.0 Unchanged RiverHarbor_47!B29
Crew-days over campaign 54605.76923076923 54605.76923076923 Unchanged RiverHarbor_47!B32
Grain over campaign (t) 54.605769230769226 54.605769230769226 Unchanged RiverHarbor_47!B33
Provisions capacity check (t) 300 300 Unchanged RiverHarbor_47!B34
Headway per team (team + spec gap) 48.0 48.0 Unchanged RouteCapacity_12!B5
TOTAL SIMULTANEOUS HAUL LANES 7 7 Unchanged RouteCapacity_12!B13
TOTAL TIMBER PER YEAR 4130.476955143621 4130.476955143621 Unchanged TimberLabor_40!B7
Barge hull timber, felled (Wave 5 feed) - native acacia, yard-built 80.64869603331141 80.64869603331141 Unchanged TimberLabor_40!B8
Subtotal, direct timber labor 819 819 Unchanged TimberLabor_40!B16
Granite (3)
Label Baseline value Current scenario value Change status Workbook reference
Granite operation active labor (peak campaign) 1601.0 1601.0 Unchanged GraniteAswan_42!B36
Rostered (x roster/replacement) 2783.0 2783.0 Unchanged GraniteAswan_42!B37
Status INTEGRATED INTO M3 (Wave 5) - bodies only; capability gaps remain FINDINGS; river corridor support now priced in RiverHarbor_47 (Wave 6, v0.63) INTEGRATED INTO M3 (Wave 5) - bodies only; capability gaps remain FINDINGS; river corridor support now priced in RiverHarbor_47 (Wave 6, v0.63) Unchanged GraniteAswan_42!B39
Findings & Validation (24)
Label Baseline value Current scenario value Change status Workbook reference
Feedback-solved food support population | Separate food-method fork | Active labor | FoodFeedback_28 261803.70374236684 261803.70374236684 Unchanged DiagnosticIntegration_35!D5
Feedback-solved food support population | Rostered labor | FoodFeedback_28 261803.70374236684 261803.70374236684 Unchanged DiagnosticIntegration_35!E5
Sanitation / medical / cleaning labor | First-order support diagnostic | Active labor | SanitationMedical_29 1128 1128 Unchanged DiagnosticIntegration_35!D6
F1 (M1): Hauling rostered labor vs adjusted effective labor pool: 8761 8761 Unchanged Findings_09!B3
F2 (M2): On-site rostered labor, four priced departments: 47316 47316 Unchanged Findings_09!B4
F3 (M2): Implied village population vs excavated capacity of 25,000: 281642.85714285716 281642.85714285716 Unchanged Findings_09!B5
F4 (M3, partial): Total project-dedicated population: 533233.8571428572 533233.8571428572 Unchanged Findings_09!B6
F22 (Granite): Aswan expedition integrated into M3 (Wave 5, bodies only). Peak campaign corps of 1,601 active / 2,783 rostered enters M3 with no family multiplier (expedition concession). Shore-lift, refloat, and mid-route repair capability gaps remain findings, not priced mechanisms. Peak campaign corps of 1,601 active / 2,783 rostered enters M3 with no family multiplier (expedition concession). Shore-lift, refloat, and mid-route repair capability gaps remain findings, not priced mechanisms. Unchanged Findings_09!B41
F23 (Barge feed): Granite barge felled timber feeds TimberLabor_40 (Wave 5). Felled barge acacia of 80.6 m3/yr enters felling/sawing/overhead labor. Cedar-import voyage and Giza overland haul lines are excluded because hulls are native acacia built at riverside yards - generous to the conventional scenario. Felled barge acacia of 80.6 m3/yr enters felling/sawing/overhead labor. Cedar-import voyage and Giza overland haul lines are excluded because hulls are native acacia built at riverside yards - generous to the conventional scenario. Unchanged Findings_09!B42
F24 (Numerator ruling): Test 1 reports the ex-farmer labor share. Ruling 2026-07-09: annual-yield farmers (46,350 rostered) are excluded from the Test 1 numerator because their burden is priced in Test 2. Ruling MR-08 (v0.81) puts the share on a dimensionally consistent basis: concurrent ex-farmer labor against the standing non-farm pool. Ex-farmer share: 61.6% (2.5x the benchmark). The pre-correction rostered/standing figure of 70.4% is retained as a transparency line, as is the inclusive share. Ruling 2026-07-09: annual-yield farmers (46,350 rostered) are excluded from the Test 1 numerator because their burden is priced in Test 2. Ruling MR-08 (v0.81) puts the share on a dimensionally consistent basis: concurrent ex-farmer labor against the standing non-farm pool. Ex-farmer share: 55.5% (2.2x the benchmark). The pre-correction rostered/standing figure of 63.4% is retained as a transparency line, as is the inclusive share. Changed Findings_09!B43
F26 (River/harbor): Granite corridor support organization priced. F26 (River/harbor): Granite corridor support organization priced. F26 (River/harbor): Granite corridor support organization priced. Unchanged Findings_09!A45
F26 (River/harbor): Granite corridor support organization priced. RiverHarbor_47 (Wave 6): barge crews, harbor gangs at both ends, and pilotage enter M3 as bodies only, anchored to the Diary of Merer - the mainstream's own document. The voyage schedule is feasible on paper (~1.1 barge-seasons for 30 pieces); the burden is the standing organization. Gates 1-4 in GraniteAswan_42 remain unresolved capability findings. Army-sourcing objection pre-answered: soldiers come from the same prime-age cohort; the numerator counts bodies. RiverHarbor_47 (Wave 6): barge crews, harbor gangs at both ends, and pilotage enter M3 as bodies only, anchored to the Diary of Merer - the mainstream's own document. The voyage schedule is feasible on paper (~1.1 barge-seasons for 30 pieces); the burden is the standing organization. Gates 1-4 in GraniteAswan_42 remain unresolved capability findings. Army-sourcing objection pre-answered: soldiers come from the same prime-age cohort; the numerator counts bodies. Unchanged Findings_09!B45
F26 (River/harbor): Granite corridor support organization priced. RiverHarbor_47 / GraniteAswan_42 / SRC-MERER RiverHarbor_47 / GraniteAswan_42 / SRC-MERER Unchanged Findings_09!C45
Objection "The army crewed the barges and harbors." "The army crewed the barges and harbors." Unchanged Objections_10!A21
Model response Changes nothing. Soldiers are drawn from the same 384,000-man prime-age cohort; the Test 1 numerator counts bodies regardless of which state department supplies them. And an army standing crew duty on a 20-30 year monument corridor is not garrisoning borders or fielding campaigns - the demographic closure comparator (Weni) already prices what the kingdom could mobilize and for how long. Changes nothing. Soldiers are drawn from the same 384,000-man prime-age cohort; the Test 1 numerator counts bodies regardless of which state department supplies them. And an army standing crew duty on a 20-30 year monument corridor is not garrisoning borders or fielding campaigns - the demographic closure comparator (Weni) already prices what the kingdom could mobilize and for how long. Unchanged Objections_10!B21
Total project-dedicated population ties across sheets. 533233.8571428572 533233.8571428572 Unchanged QAChecks_08!F12
Final shaping/trim 0.5 0.5 Unchanged ShapingSetting_33!D51
Final shaping/trim 25.714285714285715 25.714285714285715 Unchanged ShapingSetting_33!E51
Final shaping/trim 44.69600593225527 44.69600593225527 Unchanged ShapingSetting_33!F51
Setting/alignment support 0.4 0.4 Unchanged ShapingSetting_33!D52
Setting/alignment support 82.28571428571429 82.28571428571429 Unchanged ShapingSetting_33!E52
Setting/alignment support 143.02721898321687 143.02721898321687 Unchanged ShapingSetting_33!F52
Rework/correction 0.05 0.05 Unchanged ShapingSetting_33!C54
Rework/correction 108.0 108.0 Unchanged ShapingSetting_33!D54
Assumptions & Inputs (4)
Label Baseline value Current scenario value Change status Workbook reference
Reference labor pool 3000 3000 Unchanged Assumptions_02!E16
Village capacity (excavated) 25000 25000 Unchanged Assumptions_02!E17
Aswan-Giza river corridor distance (km each way) 890 890 Unchanged Assumptions_02!E94
Aswan-Giza river corridor (each way) 890 890 Unchanged Inputs_03!B193

Baseline Facts

Technical detail — expand for tables, workbook references, and exact values

Baseline Closure Results

Measure Baseline value Subsystem Output type Workbook reference
Project labor as share of the NON-FARM male labor pool 0.6164306640625001 National closure Metric NationalClosure_41!B13
National mobilization test EXCEEDS SINGLE-PROJECT MOBILIZATION CEILING National closure Status NationalClosure_41!B14
Project workforce vs. Weni mobilization maximum — concurrent 0.9468375 Demographic closure Metric DemographicClosure_46!B32
Project workforce vs. Weni mobilization maximum — rostered 1.0821 Demographic closure Metric DemographicClosure_46!B33
Documented mobilization limit test APPROACHING THE MAXIMUM DOCUMENTED MOBILIZATION - AND HELD CONTINUOUSLY RATHER THAN LEVIED ONCE Demographic closure Status DemographicClosure_46!B35
Demographic closure verdict DOES NOT CLOSE - SUSTAINED MOBILIZATION AT THE SCALE OF MAXIMUM DOCUMENTED CAPACITY, HELD CONTINUOUSLY Demographic closure Conclusion DemographicClosure_46!B38

Evidence Provenance

Recorded Sources and References

Sources supporting the displayed closure results

Computation Provenance

Workbook version
v0.92
Workbook SHA-256
4c7191452c0f8bd9c8ade1259e52f53b7b52817d69dd624c0b1c53ea7981580e
Baseline tag
v0.64-baseline
Engine package
qa_shadow_model
Engine commit
5d420bb2ae8a4763c4cc32ad846884c7581d1a18
Target registry version
gp.v064.targets.v1

Scenario Provenance

Entered by
browser-foundation
Entered at
2026-07-15T12:00:00+00:00
Source note
Browser predefined imported-labor scenario.
Justification
Browser scenario selection exercises closure-output changes.
Evidence reference
Browser predefined scenario selection.

Baseline Closure Outputs

Workbook reference Source module Provenance note Value type Comparison capability
NationalClosure_41!B13 national_closure Formula-backed Test 1 metric used by NationalClosure_41!B14. float numeric_delta
NationalClosure_41!B14 national_closure Formula-backed Test 1 status preserving workbook status strings. string categorical_transition
DemographicClosure_46!B32 demographic_closure Formula-backed demographic closure metric feeding Test C status. float numeric_delta
DemographicClosure_46!B33 demographic_closure Formula-backed demographic closure metric feeding Test C status. float numeric_delta
DemographicClosure_46!B35 demographic_closure Formula-backed Test C status preserving workbook status strings. string categorical_transition
DemographicClosure_46!B38 demographic_closure Explicit demographic closure verdict output. string categorical_transition

Changed Closure Outputs

Workbook reference Source module Provenance note Value type Comparison capability
NationalClosure_41!B13 national_closure Formula-backed Test 1 metric used by NationalClosure_41!B14. float numeric_delta
DemographicClosure_46!B32 demographic_closure Formula-backed demographic closure metric feeding Test C status. float numeric_delta
DemographicClosure_46!B33 demographic_closure Formula-backed demographic closure metric feeding Test C status. float numeric_delta
DemographicClosure_46!B35 demographic_closure Formula-backed Test C status preserving workbook status strings. string categorical_transition
DemographicClosure_46!B38 demographic_closure Explicit demographic closure verdict output. string categorical_transition

Evidence Sources

Register identifiers are kept verbatim; their prefixes mark the entry type:

SRC-
External or cited source
JUDG-
Modeling judgment or control rule
OPEN-
Unresolved evidence requirement
STEEL-
Named model mechanism or credit
SRC-METHOD-
Internal method / governance reference
Source register (93 entries, verbatim from SourceRegister_01)

Entries print exactly as the workbook holds them, including their own unfinished citations. OPEN ITEM in the citation column means the value is in use and its page reference is not yet pinned; the Notes column states what is outstanding. That is distinct from a source id beginning OPEN-, which marks an evidence requirement the model has raised and not met. Confidence grades the value in use, not the completeness of its citation, so a high-confidence value may still carry an open page reference.

SRC-QUARRY-NOVA External or cited source — Quarry productivity trial
Input / variable
Quarry productivity trial
Source / author
NOVA This Old Pyramid trial (Lehner/Hopkins)
Year
1992
Value used
1.4 man-days/block
Use type
Transformed
Confidence
High
Page / table / figure
OPEN ITEM
Notes
Iron tools, <1 t blocks; scaling factors are engineering judgment.
SRC-ROPE-CHATHAM External or cited source — Ropemaking benchmark
Input / variable
Ropemaking benchmark
Source / author
Chatham Royal Dockyard - PRIMARY ATTRIBUTION UNVERIFIED
Year
1798
Value used
274 men
Use type
Direct
Confidence
Medium
Page / table / figure
OPEN ITEM - 274 men not traced to a primary record. Circulates in secondary summaries of the 1798 dockyard establishment (1,664); Ropeyard workforce recorded separately by the Navy Board, so accounting basis unconfirmed. Pin task: Coad, J.G. (1969) Chatham Ropeyard, Post-Medieval Archaeology 3, pp. 143-165, or NMM ADM/B muster returns.
Notes
Hand-era ropeyard benchmark. Input re-badged ASSUMPTION at v0.68. Ropewalk length (346 m) and first-rate rope requirement (~50 km) are separately pinned; only the headcount is unverified.
SRC-VILLAGECAP External or cited source — Worker village capacity
Input / variable
Worker village capacity
Source / author
Lehner 2002, "The Pyramid Age Settlement of the Southern Mount at Giza," JARCE 39:27-74; Lehner 2015, "Labor and the Pyramids," in Steinkeller & Hudson (eds.), Labor in the Ancient World, ISLET, pp. 397-522 (sight-verified); Lehner & Tavares 2010, pp. 171-216
Year
var.
Value used
~25,000 persons - RE-BADGED ASSUMPTION (generous): ceiling set at top of mainstream workforce range (SRC-NOVA-WORKFORCE); published excavated-capacity arithmetic (gallery complex) is smaller. The claim that any smaller ceiling worsens M2 is WITHDRAWN (MR-22, v0.89). B32 is both the numerator of the village ratio and the capacity it is compared against, so the settlement overshoot reduces algebraically to on-site roster / B31 and does not move with the ceiling at all; implied village and M3 move in direct proportion, so a smaller ceiling lowers the burden. Measured: 15,000 -> M3 194,679; 25,000 -> 533,234.
Use type
Direct
Confidence
High
Page / table / figure
OPEN ITEM - needs exact AERA publication/page
Notes
AERA/Lehner worker-town capacity. Treat 25,000 as the project's stated ceiling rather than a page-pinned published capacity.
SRC-LAKE-KHUFU External or cited source — Harbor basin / delivery point
Input / variable
Harbor basin / delivery point
Source / author
Lehner 2020, "Lake Khufu: On the Waterfront at Giza," in Barta & Janak (eds.), Profane Landscapes, Sacred Spaces, Equinox, pp. 191-292; short form Lehner 2014, AERAGRAM 15.1-2:13-23; corrob. Sheisha et al. 2022, PNAS 119
Year
2020
Value used
basin at plateau edge
Use type
Context anchor
Confidence
Medium
Page / table / figure
Lake Khufu / Lehner 2020 PDF - page verification needed
Notes
Use as context anchor only until exact figure/page is tied to workbook input.
SRC-GPMP-NILE External or cited source — Nile channel distance
Input / variable
Nile channel distance
Source / author
Lehner / GPMP reconstruction
Year
var.
Value used
~1 km east of village
Use type
Context anchor
Confidence
Medium
Page / table / figure
OPEN ITEM - GPMP/Lehner page verification needed
Notes
Channel distance remains context anchor; exact value needs map/page citation.
SRC-MERER External or cited source — Water transport practice
Input / variable
Water transport practice
Source / author
Wadi el-Jarf papyri / Merer diary
Year
2013+
Value used
boat deliveries to basin
Use type
Context anchor
Confidence
High
Page / table / figure
Tallet / Wadi el-Jarf publication needed
Notes
Use Merer as delivery-practice context only; not a complete logistics model. SHARED ID BY DESIGN: row 82 also carries SRC-MERER. Both rows describe the SAME source - the Merer diary - entered twice for two uses: this row for delivery practice, row 82 for river operations, crew organization and cadence with its own page pins. CitationControl_34 row 11 tracks them as one citation, and the three cells share one stored string. The id is deliberately not unique; do NOT rename either row to make it so - a rename in place would silently retag all three.
SRC-BIRNASIB External or cited source — Sinai copper output ceiling
Input / variable
Sinai copper output ceiling
Source / author
Slag ~100,000 t: Abdel-Motelib et al. 2012, Metalla 19.1/2; Hauptmann 2007; Rothenberg 1987. Metallic copper ~5,000 t: Bachmann calculation
Year
var.
Value used
5,000-5,500 t all-time; slag mostly LBA/New Kingdom, so the OK-era ceiling is lower - the all-time figure is generous to the mainstream as used
Use type
Direct
Confidence
Medium
Page / table / figure
OPEN ITEM - verify archaeological citation/page
Notes
Bir Nasib total output needs primary/archaeometallurgy citation; PorterGeo/Petrie can be interim trail only.
SRC-BUTZER-POP External or cited source — Old Kingdom national population
Input / variable
Old Kingdom national population
Source / author
Butzer 1976, Early Hydraulic Civilization in Egypt, Univ. of Chicago Press, p. 83, Table 4 ("Hypothetical demographic development in ancient Egypt"); ch. 7, pp. 81-98; fig. 13, p. 85; open-access ISAC/Oriental Institute PDF
Year
1976
Value used
1.6 million at 2500 B.C. (p. 83 row sight-verified 2026-07-11); the source itself labels the table "hypothetical" - carried as a stress-test denominator, sensitivity at 2.0M/2.5M in ClosureSensitivity_45
Use type
Direct
Confidence
High
Page / table / figure
Table 4, p. 83 (page carries no printed number; bracketed by 82 and 84) / PDF p. 98
Notes
Table 4 lists total population of 1.6 million for 2500 B.C.; Butzer cautions demographic values are hypothetical working estimates, not census figures. URL and stress test are documented in KingdomCapacity_17.
SRC-CALENDAR External or cited source — Work calendar / absence
Input / variable
Work calendar / absence
Source / author
Deir el-Medina ostraca, e.g. BM 5634
Year
NK
Value used
10-day week, rest days, absences
Use type
Pattern anchor
Confidence
Medium
Page / table / figure
OPEN ITEM
Notes
New Kingdom evidence applied cautiously to Old Kingdom.
SRC-MORTALITY External or cited source — Worker mortality
Input / variable
Worker mortality
Source / author
Giza worker cemetery skeletal studies (Hawass, workers cemetery report; skeletal analysis credited there to Azza Mohamed Sarry El-Din and Fawziya Hussein, National Research Centre, Cairo). Formal publication: Sarry El-Din, A.M. (2003) "Skeletal Remains from the Workers' Cemetery at Giza", in Hawass (ed., with Lyla Pinch Brock), Egyptology at the Dawn of the Twenty-First Century: Proceedings of the Eighth International Congress of Egyptologists, Cairo 2000, Vol. 2 (History, Religion), Cairo: AUC Press, pp. 397-404.
Year
var.
Value used
male death 30-35; healed fractures; arthritis
Use type
Direct
Confidence
Medium
Page / table / figure
Vol. 2 (History, Religion), pp. 397-404. SIGHT-VERIFIED 2026-09-03: volume, page range and editor confirmed by owner; the 30-35 male age-at-death range confirmed verbatim in the Hawass workers' cemetery report - "Many of the men died between age 30 and 35." Closes the prior PARTIAL / NOT SIGHT-VERIFIED status. Note a second, similar Sarry El-Din paper sits in the same proceedings ("Anthropological Differences between Workers and High Officials from the Old Kingdom at Giza"); do not attach this page range to that one.
Notes
Drives replacement multiplier; skeletal aging caveat remains.
SRC-HOUSEHOLD External or cited source — Household size
Input / variable
Household size
Source / author
Kemp; Kahun archaeology
Year
var.
Value used
avg 6, range 5-8 per house
Use type
Transformed
Confidence
Medium
Page / table / figure
OPEN ITEM
Notes
Transformed to project household/dependent assumptions.
SRC-BLOCKMASS External or cited source — Block mass range
Input / variable
Block mass range
Source / author
Mainstream literature
Year
var.
Value used
2,500-3,000 kg
Use type
Direct
Confidence
High
Page / table / figure
OPEN ITEM
Notes
Default 3,000; steelman 2,500.
SRC-BUILDDURATION External or cited source — Build duration
Input / variable
Build duration
Source / author
Mainstream Khufu reign framework
Year
var.
Value used
~20-30 years depending scenario
Use type
Direct/derived
Confidence
High
Page / table / figure
OPEN ITEM
Notes
Workbook cadence currently tied to selected duration assumptions.
SRC-PLATEAULIFT External or cited source — Plateau lift / basin to base
Input / variable
Plateau lift / basin to base
Source / author
Site topography
Year
var.
Value used
~40 m
Use type
Direct
Confidence
Medium
Page / table / figure
OPEN ITEM
Notes
Needs published elevation anchor.
SRC-SINAI-EXPEDITION External or cited source — Sinai expedition composition
Input / variable
Sinai expedition composition
Source / author
Mining inscriptions
Year
var.
Value used
parties of several hundred
Use type
Context anchor
Confidence
Medium
Page / table / figure
OPEN ITEM
Notes
Mostly later evidence; Dyn 4 installations noted.
JUDG-MATERIAL-BALANCE Modeling judgment or control rule — Material-balance rule
Input / variable
Material-balance rule
Source / author
Engineering / accounting principle
Year
n/a
Value used
same output cannot be spent twice
Use type
Methodology
Confidence
High
Page / table / figure
n/a
Notes
Required output assigned to the pyramid is unavailable to non-pyramid uses.
JUDG-TRACKWATER Modeling judgment or control rule — Track wetting water
Input / variable
Track wetting water
Source / author
Engineering judgment / friction-moisture requirement
Year
n/a
Value used
L/m2/hr lever
Use type
Judgment
Confidence
Medium/Low
Page / table / figure
OPEN ITEM
Notes
Water volume included; labor chain pending.
JUDG-FOOD-PARTIAL Modeling judgment or control rule — Food system partial status
Input / variable
Food system partial status
Source / author
Model method
Year
n/a
Value used
grain/fuel included; full diet pending
Use type
Methodology
Confidence
Medium
Page / table / figure
n/a
Notes
Prevents double counting of village processing labor.
JUDG-ONSITE-DOMWATER Modeling judgment or control rule — On-site domestic/process water
Input / variable
On-site domestic/process water
Source / author
Engineering judgment / minimum human-support allowance
Year
n/a
Value used
5+2+3 L/person/day default
Use type
Judgment / sensitivity
Confidence
Medium/Low
Page / table / figure
OPEN ITEM
Notes
Quantified in HumanRequirements_20; can be loaded into main M3 via WaterFeedback_21 algebraic carrier feedback toggle.
JUDG-OFFSITE-DOMWATER Modeling judgment or control rule — Off-site project-support household water
Input / variable
Off-site project-support household water
Source / author
Engineering judgment / local-regional water footprint
Year
n/a
Value used
5 L/person/day default
Use type
Judgment / sensitivity
Confidence
Medium/Low
Page / table / figure
OPEN ITEM
Notes
Quantified as local/regional footprint, not Giza-delivered water.
JUDG-CAMPWATER Modeling judgment or control rule — Remote expedition/camp water
Input / variable
Remote expedition/camp water
Source / author
Engineering judgment / remote labor camp burden
Year
n/a
Value used
8 L/person/day default
Use type
Judgment / sensitivity
Confidence
Medium/Low
Page / table / figure
OPEN ITEM
Notes
Input lever reserved for future separation of Sinai/mining/expedition camp water.
JUDG-HUMANREQ-CONTROL Modeling judgment or control rule — Universal human requirements control
Input / variable
Universal human requirements control
Source / author
Model methodology
Year
n/a
Value used
Every counted person carries support needs
Use type
Methodology
Confidence
High
Page / table / figure
n/a
Notes
Requires food, water, rest/absence, replacement where applicable, and household support to be assigned or explicitly marked as coverage gap.
JUDG-WATERFEEDBACK Modeling judgment or control rule — Domestic water carrier feedback solution
Input / variable
Domestic water carrier feedback solution
Source / author
Model methodology
Year
n/a
Value used
algebraic carrier-village-water solution
Use type
Methodology
Confidence
High
Page / table / figure
n/a
Notes
Solves feedback between domestic/process water, water carriers, on-site rostered labor, and implied village population without circular spreadsheet formulas.
STEEL-YOUTH-LIGHTSUPPORT Named model mechanism or credit — Youth light-support credit active
Input / variable
Youth light-support credit active
Source / author
Modeling concession
Year
2026
Value used
YES
Use type
Steelman concession
Confidence
Medium/Low
Page / table / figure
Workbook methodology
Notes
Recognizes likely intermittent youth household assistance without treating children as full adult labor.
STEEL-YOUTH-CREDIT Named model mechanism or credit — Youth light-support credit rate
Input / variable
Youth light-support credit rate
Source / author
Modeling concession
Year
2026
Value used
5%
Use type
Steelman concession
Confidence
Medium/Low
Page / table / figure
Workbook methodology
Notes
Bounded at 5%; higher values require separate youth labor department assumptions.
JUDG-YOUTH-PRODUCTIVITY Modeling judgment or control rule — Youth water-carrying productivity factor
Input / variable
Youth water-carrying productivity factor
Source / author
Engineering judgment
Year
2026
Value used
40% adult-equivalent
Use type
Sensitivity check only
Confidence
Low
Page / table / figure
Open item
Notes
Used only to estimate implied youth headcount for credit magnitude.
JUDG-WATERINFRA-GATE Modeling judgment or control rule — Water infrastructure alternatives
Input / variable
Water infrastructure alternatives
Source / author
Model methodology
Year
2026
Value used
replacement-burden gate
Use type
Methodology
Confidence
High
Page / table / figure
WaterInfraAlt_27
Notes
Alternative water-delivery claims are not allowed to reduce M3 carrier burden unless the replacement system is assigned and cost-loaded.
OPEN-WATERINFRA-EVIDENCE Unresolved evidence requirement — Canal/depot/well/storage/animal/boat water options
Input / variable
Canal/depot/well/storage/animal/boat water options
Source / author
Open source item
Year
n/a
Value used
TBD
Use type
Open item
Confidence
Open
Page / table / figure
OPEN ITEM
Notes
Requires archaeological, geomorphic, textual, or engineering source support before any alternative is integrated into main totals.
JUDG-WATERRELIEF-SENS Modeling judgment or control rule — First-order water-relief scenarios
Input / variable
First-order water-relief scenarios
Source / author
Model sensitivity
Year
2026
Value used
0-90% reduction scenarios
Use type
Sensitivity only
Confidence
Medium/Low
Page / table / figure
WaterInfraAlt_27
Notes
Shows approximate first-order carrier relief only; not a main-model change until replacement burden and feedback are solved.
JUDG-FOODFEEDBACK Modeling judgment or control rule — Food farmer-household feedback
Input / variable
Food farmer-household feedback
Source / author
Model methodology
Year
2026
Value used
positive farmer surplus required
Use type
Methodology
Confidence
High
Page / table / figure
FoodFeedback_28
Notes
Agricultural labor cannot be added as free surplus; farmer households must be supported before project surplus exists.
OPEN-GRAIN-PROD Unresolved evidence requirement — Farmer productivity / hectares per farmer
Input / variable
Farmer productivity / hectares per farmer
Source / author
Open source item
Year
n/a
Value used
TBD
Use type
Open item
Confidence
Open
Page / table / figure
OPEN ITEM
Notes
FoodFeedback_28 shows current 1.5 ha/farmer and 1.2 t/ha/yr assumptions do not generate positive surplus after household support.
OPEN-FOOD-DIST Unresolved evidence requirement — Food transport/distribution/reserve system
Input / variable
Food transport/distribution/reserve system
Source / author
Open source item
Year
n/a
Value used
TBD
Use type
Open item
Confidence
Open
Page / table / figure
OPEN ITEM
Notes
Need sourced treatment for local/off-site provisioning, Giza delivery, storage/spoilage, seed reserve, bad-flood buffer, and administrative distribution.
JUDG-SANITATION-CONTROL Modeling judgment or control rule — Sanitation/basic medical support
Input / variable
Sanitation/basic medical support
Source / author
Model methodology
Year
2026
Value used
required-function diagnostic
Use type
Methodology
Confidence
High
Page / table / figure
SanitationMedical_29
Notes
Waste handling, cleaning, and basic care are required functions for a large worker village; sheet is diagnostic only, not main-model integration.
OPEN-SANITATION-RATES Unresolved evidence requirement — Sanitation/medical/cleaning labor rates
Input / variable
Sanitation/medical/cleaning labor rates
Source / author
Open source item
Year
n/a
Value used
TBD
Use type
Open item
Confidence
Open
Page / table / figure
OPEN ITEM
Notes
First-order rates in Inputs_03 B122:B124 are placeholders until sourced or replaced by an explicit archaeological/engineering mechanism.
JUDG-PROCESS-CONTAINER Modeling judgment or control rule — Processing/fuel/container support
Input / variable
Processing/fuel/container support
Source / author
Model methodology
Year
2026
Value used
required-function diagnostic
Use type
Methodology
Confidence
High
Page / table / figure
ProcessingFuelContainers_30
Notes
Food, water, and fuel streams require processing, containers/handling gear, fuel, storage, and distribution; control only, not main M3 integration.
OPEN-CONTAINER-RATES Unresolved evidence requirement — Container capacity / breakage / replacement
Input / variable
Container capacity / breakage / replacement
Source / author
Open source item
Year
n/a
Value used
TBD
Use type
Open item
Confidence
Open
Page / table / figure
OPEN ITEM
Notes
Need sourced or explicitly engineered assumptions for jars, baskets, sacks, skins, breakage, production, replacement, kiln/fuel burden, and transport.
OPEN-FUEL-TRANSPORT Unresolved evidence requirement — Oven/brewery fuel collection and transport
Input / variable
Oven/brewery fuel collection and transport
Source / author
Open source item
Year
n/a
Value used
TBD
Use type
Open item
Confidence
Open
Page / table / figure
OPEN ITEM
Notes
FoodSystem_13 quantifies fuel mass/woodland footprint; labor, route, collection, storage, and fuel-delivery burden remain open.
JUDG-TIMBER-GATE Modeling judgment or control rule — Timber required-function gate
Input / variable
Timber required-function gate
Source / author
Model methodology
Year
2026
Value used
replacement mechanism required
Use type
Methodology
Confidence
High
Page / table / figure
TimberSystem_31
Notes
Any timber reduction must identify the replacement mechanism and cost-load labor/material/transport/feedback.
OPEN-TIMBER-STOCK Unresolved evidence requirement — Structural timber stock in service
Input / variable
Structural timber stock in service
Source / author
Open model item
Year
n/a
Value used
TBD
Use type
Open item
Confidence
Open
Page / table / figure
OPEN ITEM
Notes
Requires WBS inventory for sleds, planks, levers, cribbing, anchors, boats, workshops, repair stock.
OPEN-TIMBER-SPECIES Unresolved evidence requirement — Structural wood suitability / service life
Input / variable
Structural wood suitability / service life
Source / author
Open source item
Year
n/a
Value used
TBD
Use type
Open item
Confidence
Open
Page / table / figure
OPEN ITEM
Notes
Need species, size, grade, reject, service life, and competing-use treatment for cedar/acacia/tamarisk/sycamore/palm/non-wood materials.
SRC-PALERMO-CEDAR External or cited source — Snefru cedar import comparator
Input / variable
Snefru cedar import comparator
Source / author
Palermo Stone / royal annal tradition
Year
Old Kingdom
Value used
40 ships (SOURCED) / ~68.6 m3/ship, ~2,745 m3 total comparator (ASSUMPTION, generous-high)
Use type
Context / comparator
Confidence
Medium
Page / table / figure
Wilkinson, Royal Annals of Ancient Egypt: The Palermo Stone and its Associated Fragments, Kegan Paul, 2000, pp. 141-145
Notes
Ship count (40) is sourced to the cited pages. Per-ship volume (~68.6 m3/ship, ~2,745 m3 total) is an assumption, deliberately generous-high: a larger comparator volume shrinks demand ratios, favoring the conventional scenario. Used only as comparator/source-control line; does not establish project availability or eliminate procurement/fabrication burden.
OPEN-TIMBER-LABOR Unresolved evidence requirement — Timber procurement/fabrication/transport labor
Input / variable
Timber procurement/fabrication/transport labor
Source / author
Open model item
Year
n/a
Value used
TBD
Use type
Open item
Confidence
Open
Page / table / figure
OPEN ITEM
Notes
Woodcutters, carpenters, sawyers, haulers, boat crews, repair crews, households, food, water, and feedback not integrated.
JUDG-RAMP-GATE Modeling judgment or control rule — Ramp required-function gate
Input / variable
Ramp required-function gate
Source / author
Model methodology
Year
2026
Value used
replacement mechanism required
Use type
Methodology
Confidence
High
Page / table / figure
RampSystem_32
Notes
Ramp claims must be treated as route/lift/access systems with geometry, materials, surface maintenance, traffic capacity, and removal/rework burden.
OPEN-RAMP-GEOMETRY Unresolved evidence requirement — Ramp geometry / volume / phasing
Input / variable
Ramp geometry / volume / phasing
Source / author
Open model item
Year
n/a
Value used
TBD
Use type
Open item
Confidence
Open
Page / table / figure
OPEN ITEM
Notes
Requires selected ramp type, footprint, grade, width, turns, staging, final-course access, and phasing before quantitative integration.
OPEN-RAMP-PROD Unresolved evidence requirement — Ramp construction/maintenance productivity
Input / variable
Ramp construction/maintenance productivity
Source / author
Open source item
Year
n/a
Value used
TBD
Use type
Open item
Confidence
Open
Page / table / figure
OPEN ITEM
Notes
Inputs_03 B159:B161 are placeholders until source/engineering basis is assigned.
OPEN-RAMP-TRAFFIC Unresolved evidence requirement — Ramp traffic capacity / surface treatment
Input / variable
Ramp traffic capacity / surface treatment
Source / author
Open model item
Year
n/a
Value used
TBD
Use type
Open item
Confidence
Open
Page / table / figure
OPEN ITEM
Notes
Need lane width, passing/return paths, staging, surface friction/wear, maintenance, water/timber/paving, and repair disruption treatment.
SRC-METHOD-SOURCE-CONTROL Internal method / governance reference — Citation/source-control method
Input / variable
Citation/source-control method
Source / author
Internal model-control rule
Year
2026
Value used
Load-bearing sources ranked by citation status and page/URL completeness
Use type
Methodology
Confidence
High
Page / table / figure
CitationControl_34
Notes
v0.40 adds source-status controls; no model value changes.
SRC-METHOD-AG-ROSTER Internal method / governance reference — Annual-yield agricultural producers
Input / variable
Annual-yield agricultural producers
Source / author
Internal model-control rule
Year
2026
Value used
Annual crop yield is yearly output; roster factor 1.0
Use type
Prevents double-counting farmer availability
Confidence
High
Page / table / figure
FoodFeedback_28 / Model_04 B124,B128
Notes
Accounting/control rule; annual-yield producers differ from standing project-service crews.
SRC-METHOD-CAPACITY-BANDS Internal method / governance reference — Internal model-control rule
Input / variable
Internal model-control rule
Source / author
2026
Year
Mobilization-capacity bands
Value used
50k-500k capacity-band table; 150k reference screen
Use type
State-capacity stress-test framing
Confidence
Not a source/census claim; 9.375% is arithmetic only
Page / table / figure
KingdomCapacity_17
Notes
Replaces single-cutoff framing.
SRC-AERA-HEG External or cited source — Heit el-Ghurab / Giza worker settlement
Input / variable
Heit el-Ghurab / Giza worker settlement
Source / author
AERA
Year
var.
Value used
Worker town / provisioning context
Use type
Capacity-screen rationale
Confidence
High
Page / table / figure
https://aeraweb.org/projects/lost-city/
Notes
Supports organized provisioning; does not set a 150k ceiling.

Open source: https://aeraweb.org/projects/lost-city/

SRC-NOVA-WORKFORCE External or cited source — Mainstream Giza workforce comparator
Input / variable
Mainstream Giza workforce comparator
Source / author
PBS NOVA / Lehner-Hawass context
Year
var.
Value used
20,000-30,000 laborer search context
Use type
Comparator
Confidence
Medium
Page / table / figure
https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/pyramid/explore/builders.html
Notes
Public NOVA workforce context; use only as comparator, not as direct source for model calculations.

Open source: https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/pyramid/explore/builders.html

SRC-REDDING-2SITES External or cited source — Old Kingdom production-consumption network
Input / variable
Old Kingdom production-consumption network
Source / author
Redding 2013, "A Tale of Two Sites," in De Cupere, Linseele & Hamilton-Dyer (eds.), Archaeozoology of the Near East X, Peeters, pp. 307-322 (sight-verified); companion: Redding 2016, in Wenke, Redding & Cagle (eds.), Kom el-Hisn, Lockwood Press, pp. 139-203
Year
2013
Value used
Kom el-Hisn / Heit el-Ghurab production-consumption model; author's stated conclusion: "labour, not land, must have been the limiting factor"
Use type
Provisioning context
Confidence
Medium
Page / table / figure
https://aeraweb.org/projects/lost-city/
Notes
AERA page lists Redding citation; formal publication details/page still needed for white paper.

Open source: https://aeraweb.org/projects/lost-city/

SRC-BOSERUP-SURPLUS External or cited source — Preindustrial agrarian surplus/intensification logic
Input / variable
Preindustrial agrarian surplus/intensification logic
Source / author
Boserup
Year
1965
Value used
Agrarian output is constrained by labor, seasonality, and intensification
Use type
General framework
Confidence
Medium
Page / table / figure
https://www.biw.kuleuven.be/aee/clo/idessa_files/boserup1965.pdf
Notes
General agrarian-surplus framework only; not a numerical limit or Egypt-specific ceiling.

Open source: https://www.biw.kuleuven.be/aee/clo/idessa_files/boserup1965.pdf

SRC-METHOD-SHAPING-GATE Internal method / governance reference — Internal WBS gate
Input / variable
Internal WBS gate
Source / author
2026
Year
Shaping/fitting/setting scope
Value used
Quarry copper is not final fitting/setting copper
Use type
Prevents hidden scope loss
Confidence
Future module requires external productivity/tool support
Page / table / figure
Internal QA
Notes
Future integration remains required.
SRC-METHOD-SHAPING-DIAG Internal method / governance reference — Internal diagnostic method
Input / variable
Internal diagnostic method
Source / author
2026
Year
Shaping/setting quantified diagnostic
Value used
Direct labor + roster + diagnostic population + copper/tool burden, not integrated
Use type
Makes pending scope visible
Confidence
Internal method; source/productivity gaps remain open
Page / table / figure
ShapingSetting_33
Notes
v0.41 diagnostic only; not a historical productivity claim.
OPEN-SHAPING-PROD Unresolved evidence requirement — Shaping/setting productivity basis
Input / variable
Shaping/setting productivity basis
Source / author
Open source item
Year
n/a
Value used
TBD
Use type
Open item
Confidence
Open
Page / table / figure
OPEN ITEM
Notes
Need sourced or explicitly bounded productivity for final trim, setting/alignment, casing-equivalent work, rework, and copper wear before M3 integration.
OPEN-CASING-SCOPE Unresolved evidence requirement — Casing stone count/equivalent-unit treatment
Input / variable
Casing stone count/equivalent-unit treatment
Source / author
Open source/model item
Year
n/a
Value used
TBD
Use type
Open item
Confidence
Open
Page / table / figure
OPEN ITEM
Notes
Define casing-equivalent units, finishing scope, Tura transport split, and relation to shaping/setting before M3 integration.
SRC-METHOD-SHAPING-READINESS Internal method / governance reference — Internal integration gate
Input / variable
Internal integration gate
Source / author
2026
Year
ShapingSetting_33 M3-readiness review
Value used
Diagnostic quantified; integration rejected pending gates
Use type
Prevents premature M3 integration
Confidence
Internal control
Page / table / figure
ShapingSetting_33 A79:G96
Notes
v0.42 control only; no headline model-value change.
OPEN-SHAPING-COPPER-WEAR Unresolved evidence requirement — Final fitting/setting copper-tool wear
Input / variable
Final fitting/setting copper-tool wear
Source / author
Open source/model item
Year
n/a
Value used
TBD
Use type
Open item
Confidence
Open
Page / table / figure
OPEN ITEM
Notes
Quarry loss proxy remains placeholder; final fitting/setting tool wear may differ and must be sourced or bounded.
OPEN-SHAPING-PERSON-FEEDBACK Unresolved evidence requirement — Shaping/setting person-category and support feedback
Input / variable
Shaping/setting person-category and support feedback
Source / author
Open model item
Year
n/a
Value used
TBD
Use type
Open item
Confidence
Open
Page / table / figure
PersonCategoryMatrix_22 / WaterFeedback_21 / FoodFeedback_28
Notes
Before M3 integration, new crews need roster, household, water, food, sanitation, and processing treatment.
SRC-METHOD-TIMBER-DIAG Internal method / governance reference — Internal diagnostic method
Input / variable
Internal diagnostic method
Source / author
2026
Year
Structural timber stock/replacement screen
Value used
Base active stock + annual replacement + gross cumulative procurement screen
Use type
Makes pending timber dependency visible
Confidence
Internal method; source/productivity gaps remain open
Page / table / figure
TimberSystem_31
Notes
v0.43 diagnostic only; not a historical timber inventory claim.
OPEN-TIMBER-STOCK-WBS Unresolved evidence requirement — Structural timber WBS inventory
Input / variable
Structural timber WBS inventory
Source / author
Open model item
Year
n/a
Value used
TBD
Use type
Open item
Confidence
Open
Page / table / figure
TimberSystem_31 A80:G91
Notes
Need source/bounds for sled rigs, ramp/track surface modules, anchors, levers, cribbing, boats, workshops, and repair reserve.
OPEN-TIMBER-SERVICE-LIFE Unresolved evidence requirement — Structural timber service life / turnover
Input / variable
Structural timber service life / turnover
Source / author
Open source/model item
Year
n/a
Value used
TBD
Use type
Open item
Confidence
Open
Page / table / figure
TimberSystem_31 A94:G100
Notes
Annual turnover is sensitivity-only until use-class service life is sourced or bounded.
OPEN-TIMBER-SPECIES-GRADE Unresolved evidence requirement — Species, grade, dimensions, conversion/reject rates
Input / variable
Species, grade, dimensions, conversion/reject rates
Source / author
Open source item
Year
n/a
Value used
TBD
Use type
Open item
Confidence
Open
Page / table / figure
SourceRegister_01 / CitationControl_34
Notes
Need cedar/acacia/tamarisk/sycamore/palm suitability, member sizes, reject rates, cut loss, handling loss.
OPEN-TIMBER-PROCUREMENT-LABOR Unresolved evidence requirement — Timber procurement/fabrication/transport labor
Input / variable
Timber procurement/fabrication/transport labor
Source / author
Open model item
Year
n/a
Value used
TBD
Use type
Open item
Confidence
Open
Page / table / figure
PersonCategoryMatrix_22 / WaterFeedback_21 / FoodFeedback_28
Notes
Woodcutters/import crews, carpenters, haulers, repair crews, boat/harbor handlers require roster/household/support feedback before M3.
OPEN-TIMBER-BOAT-RECURSION Unresolved evidence requirement — Timber transport boat/harbor recursion
Input / variable
Timber transport boat/harbor recursion
Source / author
Open model item
Year
n/a
Value used
TBD
Use type
Open item
Confidence
Open
Page / table / figure
Future river/harbor module
Notes
Structural timber procurement may require boats/harbor/repair timber and creates a feedback dependency.
SRC-METHOD-RAMP-DIAG Internal method / governance reference — Internal diagnostic method
Input / variable
Internal diagnostic method
Source / author
2026
Year
Ramp material/traffic/removal diagnostic
Value used
Volume screens + material mass + construction/maintenance/removal labor + diagnostic population
Use type
Makes pending ramp-system burden visible
Confidence
Internal method; source/geometry gaps remain open
Page / table / figure
RampSystem_32
Notes
v0.44 diagnostic only; not a selected historical ramp reconstruction.
OPEN-RAMP-MATERIAL Unresolved evidence requirement — Ramp material source / placement method
Input / variable
Ramp material source / placement method
Source / author
Open model item
Year
n/a
Value used
TBD
Use type
Open item
Confidence
Open
Page / table / figure
RampSystem_32 A114:G126
Notes
Need material source, extraction, hauling, placement, compaction, stabilization, and double-spend treatment.
OPEN-RAMP-SURFACE Unresolved evidence requirement — Ramp/track surface maintenance method
Input / variable
Ramp/track surface maintenance method
Source / author
Open model item
Year
n/a
Value used
TBD
Use type
Open item
Confidence
Open
Page / table / figure
RampSystem_32 / TimberSystem_31 / RouteCapacity_12
Notes
Bare surface, wet surface, planking, paving, sleepers, mats, drainage, rut repair, and disruption need selected treatment.
OPEN-RAMP-REMOVAL Unresolved evidence requirement — Ramp removal / cutback / rework / final-access phasing
Input / variable
Ramp removal / cutback / rework / final-access phasing
Source / author
Open model item
Year
n/a
Value used
TBD
Use type
Open item
Confidence
Open
Page / table / figure
RampSystem_32 A102:G104 / A114:G126
Notes
Define whether ramp remains, is absorbed, is cut back, is removed, or is reconfigured during casing/final access.
OPEN-RAMP-PERSON-FEEDBACK Unresolved evidence requirement — Ramp crews person-category and support feedback
Input / variable
Ramp crews person-category and support feedback
Source / author
Open model item
Year
n/a
Value used
TBD
Use type
Open item
Confidence
Open
Page / table / figure
PersonCategoryMatrix_22 / WaterFeedback_21 / FoodFeedback_28
Notes
Ramp builders, maintainers, material handlers, traffic crews, and removal crews need roster, households, water, food, sanitation, processing, and administration before M3.
OPEN-RAMP-TRAFFIC-MODEL Unresolved evidence requirement — Ramp route traffic and staging model
Input / variable
Ramp route traffic and staging model
Source / author
Open model item
Year
n/a
Value used
TBD
Use type
Open item
Confidence
Open
Page / table / figure
RouteCapacity_12 / RampSystem_32
Notes
Need lane width, passing/return paths, staging, repair stops, turns, upper-course congestion, and simultaneous-team operations.
SRC-METHOD-RAMP-READINESS Internal method / governance reference — Internal integration gate
Input / variable
Internal integration gate
Source / author
2026
Year
RampSystem_32 M3-readiness review
Value used
Diagnostic quantified; integration rejected pending gates
Use type
Prevents premature M3 integration
Confidence
Internal control
Page / table / figure
RampSystem_32 A114:G126
Notes
v0.44 control only; no headline model-value change.
SRC-METHOD-DIAG-INTEGRATION Internal method / governance reference — Diagnostic integration governance
Input / variable
Diagnostic integration governance
Source / author
Internal model-control rule
Year
2026
Value used
DiagnosticIntegration_35 roll-up / readiness matrix
Use type
Methodology
Confidence
High
Page / table / figure
Internal QA
Notes
Diagnostic burdens are not additive headline totals; M3 entry requires readiness gates and feedback treatment.
SRC-METHOD-MODEL-ANCHORS Internal method / governance reference — Compatibility-safe canonical value table
Input / variable
Compatibility-safe canonical value table
Source / author
Internal model-control rule
Year
2026
Value used
ModelAnchors_36
Use type
Cross-sheet reference hardening
Confidence
Internal control
Page / table / figure
ModelAnchors_36
Notes
Visible anchors favored over broad named-range conversion until Numbers round-trip behavior is proven.
SRC-METHOD-COMPAT-GATE Internal method / governance reference — Excel/Numbers compatibility and external integrity gate
Input / variable
Excel/Numbers compatibility and external integrity gate
Source / author
Internal model-control rule
Year
2026
Value used
CompatibilityControl_37
Use type
Canonization control
Confidence
Internal control
Page / table / figure
CompatibilityControl_37
Notes
Round-tripped files require external error-token scan before canonization.
SRC-METHOD-STATUS-BASIS Internal method / governance reference — Status basis tags
Input / variable
Status basis tags
Source / author
Internal model-control rule
Year
2026
Value used
LIVE / POLICY / MANUAL(date) / EXTERNAL(date)
Use type
Prevents hardcoded status sprawl
Confidence
Internal control
Page / table / figure
QAChecks_08 / CompatibilityControl_37
Notes
Status cells must disclose whether they are live, policy, manual review, or external scan result.
SRC-METHOD-SHEET-NAMES Internal method / governance reference — Sheet-name compatibility rule
Input / variable
Sheet-name compatibility rule
Source / author
Internal model-control rule
Year
2026
Value used
≤28 characters
Use type
Excel/Numbers name-drift prevention
Confidence
Internal control
Page / table / figure
CompatibilityControl_37
Notes
Long water-infrastructure sheet renamed WaterInfraAlt_27.
SRC-WENI-LEVY External or cited source — Maximum documented OK mobilization
Input / variable
Maximum documented OK mobilization
Source / author
Autobiography of Weni, 6th Dyn tomb inscription, Abydos (Lichtheim, Ancient Egyptian Literature Vol. I)
Year
c. 2300 BC
Value used
'army of many tens of thousands', levied 5x
Use type
Comparator
Confidence
Medium
Page / table / figure
Lichtheim, AEL Vol. I, pp. 18-23 (The Autobiography of Weni) - verify against physical copy
SRC-PALERMO-SNEFRU External or cited source — OK military character (expeditionary levies)
Input / variable
OK military character (expeditionary levies)
Source / author
Palermo Stone royal annals, Snefru register (Wilkinson, Royal Annals of Ancient Egypt, 2000)
Year
c. 2600 BC
Value used
7,000 Nubian captives, 200,000 cattle; temporary levies, no standing army
Use type
Context
Confidence
Medium
Page / table / figure
Wilkinson 2000, PS recto Snefru register (r.VI); translation section pp. 85ff - verify compartment against physical copy
SRC-MERER External or cited source — River transport operations anchor
Input / variable
River transport operations anchor
Source / author
Diary of Merer, Papyrus Jarf A/B, Wadi al-Jarf (Tallet, Les Papyrus de la Mer Rouge I, 2017)
Year
c. 2560 BC
Value used
40-man phyle in ~200-man gang (pp. 15-17; log validation pp. 40-41, Sections AII, BI-II); 2-3 round trips/10-day week (pp. 23-25); ~70-80 t loads, 10-15 blocks x 2-3 t (pp. 25-26); 5-month window. All sight-verified 2026-07-11. English secondary: Tallet & Lehner 2022, The Red Sea Scrolls; harbor terms: Lehner 2020, "Merer and the Sphinx," Guardian of Ancient Egypt II, pp. 895-925
Use type
Direct
Confidence
High
Page / table / figure
Tallet 2017, Papyrus Jarf A/B - page verification OPEN ITEM
SRC-MALE-COHORT External or cited source — Working-age physically fit male cohort share
Input / variable
Working-age physically fit male cohort share
Source / author
Demographic synthesis - model life tables for high-mortality agrarian populations; no single source
Year
n/a
Value used
0.24 of total population (~0.50 male x ~0.48 working-age-fit) - ASSUMPTION, taken high; sensitivity 20-30% in ClosureSensitivity_45
Use type
Lever / denominator basis
Confidence
Medium
Page / table / figure
OPEN ITEM - requires citation hardening (model life table or published OK demographic estimate)
Notes
Ruling 2026-07-10 fixes this as the prime-age male cohort used by both NationalClosure_41 Test 1 and DemographicClosure_46. Sex-neutral "able-bodied" labels corrected in v0.66. Numerator is male-scoped, so the denominator is male-scoped.
SRC-CEDAR-PROCESSING-STATE External or cited source — Processing state of imported Old Kingdom cedar at delivery
Input / variable
Processing state of imported Old Kingdom cedar at delivery
Source / author
Palermo Stone entry (Wilkinson, Royal Annals, 2000, pp. 141-145) records ships of cedar wood without specifying processing state. Survey targets for the source-side capacity question: Mumford, Egypt in the Eastern Mediterranean during the Old Kingdom: An Archaeological Perspective; Francis-Allouche & Grimal, "The Maritime Approaches to Ancient Byblos (Lebanon)", JEMAHS 4:2-3 (2016), 242-277. Reading caveat: Scalf, "Rereading the 7th Count of Snefru in the Palermo Stone", GM 220 (2009), notes the initial column is difficult and has drawn various interpretations.
Year
c. 2600 BC (record); modern surveys
Value used
UNATTESTED - no source-side conversion installation is reported in the sources surveyed to date; primary reading task open. Supports MR-07 leg 2. Counter-datapoint: Wenamun (New Kingdom, ~1100 BC) describes timber supplied as stem-posts and keels.
Use type
Ruling support / comparator basis
Confidence
Low
SRC-BANK-BEARING External or cited source — Allowable bearing capacity at the Giza delivery-end transfer (floodplain / harbor basin)
Input / variable
Allowable bearing capacity at the Giza delivery-end transfer (floodplain / harbor basin)
Source / author
OPEN - no source pinned. Value 15,000 kg/m2 (~147 kPa) sits at the generous end of published soft-saturated-soil ranges. Scope narrowed to the Giza delivery end in v0.72 per ruling MR-03: Aswan is First Cataract granite bedrock and is not described by this lever. Target: a geotechnical reference for Nile floodplain alluvium, plus the Giza harbor literature on whether the delivery-end transfer point was a prepared or built surface.
Year
n/a
Value used
15,000 kg/m2 - ASSUMPTION, taken high (favourable to the conventional scenario). Was badged SOURCE without a register entry until v0.71; badge corrected. Scope corrected in v0.72 - value unchanged.
Use type
Lever / Gate 3 denominator
Confidence
Low
SRC-BARGE-DIMENSIONS External or cited source — Hull dimensions of a heavy granite-carrying barge
Input / variable
Hull dimensions of a heavy granite-carrying barge
Source / author
OPEN - no Old Kingdom heavy-cargo hull is attested with dimensions. Working comparator is the New Kingdom Hatshepsut obelisk barge, roughly 63 x 21 m in the common reconstruction, which is itself contested and is a thousand years later than the Khufu reign. Targets: Naville, Deir el-Bahari; Landstrom, Ships of the Pharaohs; the Khufu ship publication for Old Kingdom hull construction limits.
Year
n/a
Value used
60 x 13 m modelled (Inputs_03!B197/B198) - ASSUMPTION, taken generous. A LARGER hull reduces deck movement and favours the conventional scenario, so the comparator is used as a magnitude, never a ceiling.
Use type
Lever / Gate 4b transfer stability
Confidence
Low
SRC-TIMBER-USECLASS External or cited source — Imported vs native share of structural timber by use class
Input / variable
Imported vs native share of structural timber by use class
Source / author
OPEN - the model carries a single 50% imported share (Inputs_03!B180) across all timber. Egypt lacks structural softwood, so structural-grade members are the imported stream while sledges, cribbing and shuttering could plausibly be native acacia. Targets: Old Kingdom carpentry and timber-species studies; Khufu ship publication for species by component.
Year
n/a
Value used
0.50 flat - ASSUMPTION, generous to the conventional account. A higher structural-import share raises the literal cedar requirement.
Use type
Lever / timber import basis
Confidence
Low
SRC-GRANITE-MASS External or cited source — Total Aswan granite mass in the Great Pyramid
Input / variable
Total Aswan granite mass in the Great Pyramid
Source / author
Hemeda, S. & Sonbol, A. (2020). "Sustainability problems of the Giza pyramids." Heritage Science 8:8, p.2: "8000 tons of granite were imported from Aswan located at more than 800 km away... The largest granite stones in the pyramid, found above the King's chamber, weigh 25 to 80 tons each." Repeated by Scheuring (2025), npj Heritage Science 13:473, ~3,000 m3 / 8,000 t, citing Hemeda & Sonbol - a secondary publication of the same estimate, not independent corroboration.
Year
2020
Value used
8,000 t (SOURCED). A stated figure in a geotechnical paper, unreferenced and underived - registered Medium, not High. Governs the mass-transport block at GraniteAswan_42 rows 57-82; the 30-piece heavy-load subset is inside it.
Use type
Load basis / mass-transport throughput
Confidence
Medium
SRC-ASWAN-CORRIDOR External or cited source — Aswan-Giza river corridor distance
Input / variable
Aswan-Giza river corridor distance
Source / author
Geographic measurement of the Nile course between the Aswan granite quarries and the Giza harbour basin. Corroborated in the granite literature: Hemeda & Sonbol (2020), Heritage Science 8:8, p.2 place Aswan "more than 800 km away" (registered as SRC-GRANITE-MASS).
Year
n/a
Value used
890 km each way (Inputs_03!B193; Assumptions_02 row 94). A geographic constant, not a lever: DEFAULT, CONSERVATIVE and STEELMAN all carry 890. Distinct from the overland quarry-to-riverbank leg at Inputs_03!B189.
Use type
Corridor distance / round-trip duration
Confidence
High
Page / table / figure
Hemeda & Sonbol 2020 p.2 for the >800 km corroboration
Notes
Split from SRC-MERER in v0.86 (ruling MR-16). Merer documents the Tura-Giza run of ~17 km and Red Sea operations from Wadi al-Jarf; it does not measure the Aswan corridor. SRC-MERER continues to carry the phyle size, gang structure, cadence, documented boat load and the 150-day window.
SRC-BASINDIST External or cited source — Carry distance, harbour basin to pyramid base (avg)
Input / variable
Carry distance, harbour basin to pyramid base (avg)
Source / author
No publication was found, in the sources reviewed for this model, that states how the workforce's water was supplied - no Old Kingdom well, cistern, or water-supply installation serving the Giza workforce, and none identifying the harbour basin as the supply point. The basin's position at the foot of the plateau IS published and independently corroborated (SRC-LAKE-KHUFU, Lehner 2020; Sheisha et al., PNAS 119, 2022). The 900 m is a geographic measurement anchored on that published basin geometry, not a figure taken from any source.
Year
n/a
Value used
900 m - ASSUMPTION, anchored measurement. STEELMAN mode carries 600 m, which is a generosity bracket rather than a measured alternative distance.
Use type
Lever / carrier trip-cycle distance
Confidence
Low
Page / table / figure
n/a - no publication states this distance, so no page is owed on this row. Basin-position provenance sits with SRC-LAKE-KHUFU, whose page item is open on its own row.
Notes
Feeds the carrier trip cycle at Model_04 B76/C76/D76 and nothing else. The vertical leg of the same route is SRC-PLATEAULIFT. REVERSAL CONDITION: if an Old Kingdom water source nearer the base is published, the carry distance falls and this input should be re-run at that distance. Deliberately NOT exposed as a public lever (owner ruling 2026-09-03) - varying it would be a hypothetical unsupported variable. Claims that closer water reduces this burden are handled at WaterInfraAlt_27 rows 29-30 and paper section 7.2: the replacement system must carry its own excavation, lining, maintenance, evidence and feedback burden before it reduces the carrier total.
SRC-SINAI-OVERHEAD External or cited source — Sinai expedition overhead ratio (support personnel per miner)
Input / variable
Sinai expedition overhead ratio (support personnel per miner)
Source / author
Not a sourced ratio and not an estimate of actual overhead. Old Kingdom Sinai expedition inscriptions record parties of several hundred with miners a fraction of the party, indicating overhead well above 1:1; no single publication is pinned. The 1:1 is a declared cap.
Year
n/a
Value used
1.0 support person per miner - ASSUMPTION, generous. Overhead beyond 1:1 is excluded by declaration at Exclusions_11 row 19 ('Security/garrison; Sinai expedition overhead beyond 1:1', partially priced, 'Only selected expedition overhead is included').
Use type
Lever / expedition overhead basis
Confidence
Low
Page / table / figure
OPEN ITEM - inscriptional corroboration not page-pinned.
Notes
Feeds Model_04 B55 (expedition overhead: soldiers, admin, camp). Paper section 7.10 reports 70 miners and 70 overhead. Because the excess is excluded rather than estimated, the model UNDERSTATES expedition burden by construction.
SRC-FESTIVAL External or cited source — Annual leave + festival days
Input / variable
Annual leave + festival days
Source / author
Not a single-source figure. Composed from modern regional labour practice plus documented Old Kingdom festival observance. Modern side pinned 2026-09-03 to Egyptian Labour Law No. 12 of 2003: 21 working days paid annual leave after one year of service, rising to 30 days at age 50 or after ten years' service, with official public holidays separate and capped at 13 days a year (Minister of Manpower and Immigration Decision No. 112 of 2003, amended by Decision No. 49 of 2009). Statutory modern time off is therefore ~34 days minimum and ~43 days for a long-service worker. Ancient calendar corroboration at SRC-CALENDAR (Deir el-Medina ostraca: 10-day week, rest days, absences).
Year
2003
Value used
40 days/yr - ASSUMPTION, planning value. Sits inside the modern Egyptian statutory range (34-43), so it is close to the modern norm rather than an inflated figure. STEELMAN mode carries 30, which is BELOW the modern statutory minimum and therefore concedes more than modern practice would give.
Use type
Lever / workforce availability basis
Confidence
Medium
Page / table / figure
Egyptian Labour Law No. 12 of 2003, annual-leave provisions; Ministerial Decision No. 112 of 2003 for the public-holiday cap. NOT SIGHT-VERIFIED against the statute text - taken from secondary summaries of the law, 2026-09-03. Pin task: confirm article numbers against the primary text.
Notes
Feeds Model_04 row 109 (leave + festival + disruption days) and the effective delivery figure at row 111. METHOD: availability is floored at documented modern regional labour practice; assuming ancient labour exceeded modern availability requires justification (Objections_10 row 12). Paper section 12 records the floor as a disclosed concession independently corroborated by the IER study's 10-hour, 6-day calendar (SRC-ROSELLROIG-IER). The corroboration attaches to the floor; the 40 is the planning value above it. NOTE: the workbook note on the input says '~30 days off/yr' for modern practice, which understates the statutory minimum of ~34.
SRC-SICKINJURY External or cited source — Sick/injury absence rate
Input / variable
Sick/injury absence rate
Source / author
The rate itself is not published. Giza worker-cemetery pathology IS sourced - 67% healed fractures, 75%+ arthritis - and indicates morbidity well above a modern floor; provenance shared with SRC-MORTALITY (Hawass workers' cemetery report; Sarry El-Din 2003). The 8% is a modern floor applied against that evidence.
Year
n/a
Value used
0.08 - ASSUMPTION, generous. Disabling injury is excluded from the replacement multiplier entirely (Model_04 row 113, 'Disabling injury excluded - generous'), and medical support labour is unpriced (Exclusions_11 row 17).
Use type
Lever / attendance basis
Confidence
Medium/Low
Page / table / figure
No publication states an absence rate, so no page is owed for the rate. Pathology provenance sits with SRC-MORTALITY, which is page-pinned and sight-verified.
Notes
Feeds the attendance factor at Model_04 row 110. Paper section 12 records the injury exclusion as a concession. DIRECTION: the sourced pathology points to higher absence than 8%, so the modern floor understates the burden.
SRC-ENTRYAGE External or cited source — Workforce entry age
Input / variable
Workforce entry age
Source / author
Not a sourced figure. Entry age is a concession. The 3,000 reference pool was derived on an adult-entry basis of 20 (Inputs_03 B89), and granting entry at 15 rescales the pool across the wider working band to 4,200 (Inputs_03 B31 = 3,000 x (32.5 - 15) / (32.5 - 20)). Reference-pool provenance is JUDG-LABORPOOL-REF, which records it as generous to the conventional account and not sourced.
Year
n/a
Value used
15 - ASSUMPTION, concession granting full adult output at entry. Widens the effective labour pool from the 3,000 reference to the 4,200 adjusted pool, which favours the conventional account. Sensitivity 15/18/20 recorded on the input.
Use type
Lever / labour-pool scaling basis
Confidence
Low
Page / table / figure
n/a - no publication is claimed and none is owed. This is a declared concession, not a sourced value.
Notes
Granted in answer to the objection 'Children performed support roles' (Objections_10 row 13): carrier load scales with body mass, so the concession INCREASES required headcount. Replacement multiplier is DERIVED from this and cemetery mortality (Model_04 rows 112-113). The reference-versus-adjusted pool distinction is guarded at QAChecks_08 row 9 and Objections_10 row 16.