Quantifying Antiquity Interactive Constructability Model (ICM)
Analysis Subject: The Great Pyramid of Giza
Quantifying Antiquity's ICM is a transparent engineering model developed to evaluate competing construction scenarios for the Great Pyramid of Giza using published evidence and documented assumptions. Rather than illustrating theories, it quantitatively tests whether those scenarios remain internally consistent when all engineering, logistical, material, and demographic dependencies are evaluated together as a complete system.
Explore the conventional construction model of the Great Pyramid. Change one or more assumptions and run the model to see how those changes affect the results. Every scenario is evaluated using the same integrated calculations, so you can compare different assumptions on equal terms.
The baseline values represent the model's documented starting scenario. Leave them unchanged to reproduce the baseline, or adjust them to test how alternative assumptions affect labor, logistics, resources, and closure.
Change the story, watch the math, and review each scenario's results in detail below.
Scenario Summary
This scenario leaves every assumption at its baseline value, so all results match the baseline scenario. National Closure and Demographic Closure keep their baseline verdicts: the model does not close.
- Scenario Assumptions
-
- Build duration: 20 → 20 years (kept at its baseline value)
- Propagated Changes
-
- No registered closure output changed.
- Unchanged Results
-
- Total project-dependent population — these assumptions do not reduce the number of people the project commits
- National mobilization test
- Demographic closure verdict
- National Closure
- Unchanged — this test does not close: above the 25% single-project mobilization threshold (workbook status: "EXCEEDS SINGLE-PROJECT MOBILIZATION CEILING").
- Demographic Closure
- Unchanged — this test does not close: sustained mobilization still exceeds the kingdom's maximum documented capacity (workbook status: "DOES NOT CLOSE - SUSTAINED MOBILIZATION EXCEEDS MAXIMUM DOCUMENTED CAPACITY").
Numerical outcomes, human burden, and evidence compatibility are separate assessments; a numerical result never implies historical support. Exact values, workbook references, and provenance remain in the technical sections below.
Scenario Details
Scenario Assessment
- Numerical result
- 0 of 155 outputs changed under this scenario. Individual test outcomes appear in Closure Results; each is a single numerical test against one documented threshold.
- Total project-dependent population
- ≈483,769 people baseline → ≈483,769 people under this scenario (Model_04!B134); the full breakdown is in the Human Burden table under Scenario Effects.
- Evidence compatibility
- Supported
- Overall assessment
- Not available. A scenario can close numerically while relying on unsupported or unsustainable input assumptions. Numerical test outcomes and evidence compatibility are reported separately and are not combined into a credibility claim: supported input ranges are registered for only one lever (build duration), and no aggregate compatibility measure is defined.
Available Scenarios
Baseline Scenario
Scenario description
Runs the model with every assumption left at its baseline value.
Compatibility Notes
What the scenario validator recorded for the current scenario's inputs.
- info This value is inside the evidence-supported range registered for this lever (20-30 years, inclusive at both boundaries).
- info This target participates in a coordinated dependency group; no companion override is required by the current registry.
Closure Results
Technical detail — expand for tables, workbook references, and exact values
The workbook's closure-test outcomes, recomputed under the current scenario. Each status is a single numerical test against one documented threshold - not an overall credibility or sustainability verdict. Evidence compatibility of the scenario's inputs is assessed separately in Scenario Details.
National Closure
| Measure | Output type | Baseline value | Current scenario value | Change status | Workbook reference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National mobilization test | Status | EXCEEDS SINGLE-PROJECT MOBILIZATION CEILING | EXCEEDS SINGLE-PROJECT MOBILIZATION CEILING | Unchanged | NationalClosure_41!B14 |
| Project labor as share of NON-FARM able-bodied | Metric | 70.4974% | 70.4974% | Unchanged | NationalClosure_41!B13 |
Demographic Closure
| Measure | Output type | Baseline value | Current scenario value | Change status | Workbook reference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Documented mobilization limit test | Status | AT OR ABOVE THE KINGDOM'S MAXIMUM DOCUMENTED MOBILIZATION - HELD CONTINUOUSLY | AT OR ABOVE THE KINGDOM'S MAXIMUM DOCUMENTED MOBILIZATION - HELD CONTINUOUSLY | Unchanged | DemographicClosure_46!B35 |
| Demographic closure verdict | Conclusion | DOES NOT CLOSE - SUSTAINED MOBILIZATION EXCEEDS MAXIMUM DOCUMENTED CAPACITY | DOES NOT CLOSE - SUSTAINED MOBILIZATION EXCEEDS MAXIMUM DOCUMENTED CAPACITY | Unchanged | DemographicClosure_46!B38 |
| Project workforce vs. Weni mobilization maximum — concurrent | Metric | 94.7485% | 94.7485% | Unchanged | DemographicClosure_46!B32 |
| Project workforce vs. Weni mobilization maximum — rostered | Metric | 108.284% | 108.284% | Unchanged | DemographicClosure_46!B33 |
Constructability Subsystems
Every engineering subsystem is held to the same architecture: baseline vs scenario values, workbook traceability, propagated results, and — where the workbook defines one — a closure test. Each panel states honestly how far that reaches today; readiness is a recorded migration fact, not a score.
National Closure
Evaluated closure testFully migrated: the Test 1 metric and status recompute under every scenario with workbook traceability.
Evaluated in the closure tables above; scenario movement appears in the Scenario Summary.
Workbook test: NationalClosure_41!B14 against the 25% single-project mobilization threshold.
Demographic Closure
Evaluated closure testFully migrated: the Weni-maximum metrics, Test C status, and closure verdict recompute under every scenario.
Evaluated in the closure tables above; scenario movement appears in the Scenario Summary.
Workbook test: DemographicClosure_46!B38 against the maximum documented mobilization record.
Timber
Migrated — propagates, no closure test yetThe TimberLabor_40 labor chain and BargeTimber_43 hull-timber feed are migrated, emitted with workbook traceability, and recompute under scenarios (build duration reaches them).
Missing before this becomes an evaluated closure section: No workbook closure test exists for timber. The off-site labor chain that carries timber labor into the total project-dedicated population enters Model_04!B134 through the sourced constant Model_04!D133, so recomputed timber labor does not yet feed back into the closure totals. TimberSystem_31 (stock/replacement) and IERRampTimber_38 are not migrated; TimberLabor_40!B6 consumes IERRampTimber_38!B31 as a sourced value. No timber-specific scenario levers are registered.
The workbook itself gates TimberSystem_31 as diagnostic-only (SRC-METHOD-TIMBER-DIAG; readiness review rejected M3 integration pending OPEN-TIMBER-* items), so a timber closure test would first have to exist in the workbook.
| Measure | Baseline value | Scenario value | Change status | Why it changed | Workbook reference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOTAL TIMBER PER YEAR | 4130.476955143621 | 4130.476955143621 | Unchanged | TimberLabor_40!B7 | |
| Barge hull timber, felled (Wave 5 feed) - native acacia, yard-built | 80.64869603331141 | 80.64869603331141 | Unchanged | TimberLabor_40!B8 | |
| Subtotal, direct timber labor | 819 | 819 | Unchanged | TimberLabor_40!B16 | |
| Standing acacia felled (incl. conversion waste) | 1129.0817444663596 | 1129.0817444663596 | Unchanged | BargeTimber_43!B19 |
Copper & Resource Consumption
Not migrated — labels onlyCopper appears only as labor headcount lines (Model_04!B129, WorkforceLedger_05!D14) inside sourced constants; their labels are preserved.
Missing before this becomes an evaluated closure section: The copper computation chain is not migrated: no engine module derives mine/smelt/transport labor, no demand figure is computed, and no comparison against the Bir Nasib output ceiling (SRC-BIRNASIB, 5,000-5,500 t all-time) exists anywhere in the engine. Fuel/woodland coupling for smelting is likewise unmigrated.
SRC-BIRNASIB carries the documented ceiling; the workbook's copper-chain rows live in Model_04 and would need dedicated module migration before any copper closure claim.
Scenario Effects
Technical detail — expand for tables, workbook references, and exact values
Scenario Analysis Detail
- Scenario analysis status
- Completed successfully
- Model integrity
- Validated
- Assumptions changed
- 1
- Changed-output count
- 0
- Unchanged-output count
- 155
- Total outputs evaluated
- 155
Changed Inputs
| Label | Baseline value | Scenario value | Change status | Unit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Build duration | 20 | 20 | unchanged | years |
Human Burden
The people this scenario commits, as the workbook's own outputs report them. Direct workers are only part of the commitment: the total project-dependent population includes the support population required to feed and sustain them.
| Measure | Baseline value | Current scenario value | Change status | Workbook reference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Direct standing workforce (concurrent) | ||||
| Project standing mobilization (concurrent) | 47374.250000000124 | 47374.250000000124 | Unchanged | DemographicClosure_46!B31 |
| Rostered project workforce | ||||
| On-site rostered total | 47316 | 47316 | Unchanged | WorkforceLedger_05!C18 |
| Off-site dedicated labor, rostered | 49650 | 49650 | Unchanged | WorkforceLedger_05!C20 |
| Project-dedicated LABOR (rostered, all depts) | 100492.0 | 100492.0 | Unchanged | NationalClosure_41!B7 |
| Support population sustaining the project | ||||
| Feedback-solved food support population | Rostered labor | FoodFeedback_28 | 144412.66432775673 | 144412.66432775673 | Unchanged | DiagnosticIntegration_35!E5 |
| Total project-dependent population | ||||
| TOTAL PROJECT-DEDICATED POPULATION | 483768.857142857 | 483768.857142857 | Unchanged | Model_04!B134 |
| Population shares in the closure tests | ||||
| Project labor as share of NON-FARM able-bodied | 70.4974% | 70.4974% | Unchanged | NationalClosure_41!B13 |
| Project workforce vs. Weni mobilization maximum — concurrent | 94.7485% | 94.7485% | Unchanged | DemographicClosure_46!B32 |
| Project workforce vs. Weni mobilization maximum — rostered | 108.284% | 108.284% | Unchanged | DemographicClosure_46!B33 |
Changed Closure Outputs
Numerical recomputation only: these values show how the registered closure outputs move under the scenario's inputs. Whether those inputs are evidence-supported is reported separately in Scenario Details.
- Changed closure-output count
- 0
| Measure | Baseline value | Scenario value | Why it changed | Workbook reference |
|---|
Evidence Identity
Technical detail — expand for tables, workbook references, and exact values
Evidence Header
- Workbook version
- v0.64
- Baseline tag
- v0.64-baseline
Evidence Details
- Workbook SHA-256
- 71fc66494b5626611c57c9493bfd5341e31b1a1ced7063fc83fee2961e8b2440
Workbook Findings
Technical detail — expand for tables, workbook references, and exact values
Workbook Findings
All 155 outputs computed by the engine, grouped by domain. Labels are preserved from the workbook. Expand a domain to inspect the individual results.
Workforce & Population (12)
| Label | Baseline value | Current scenario value | Change status | Workbook reference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Share of adjusted effective labor pool | 0.24761904761904763 | 0.24761904761904763 | Unchanged | Model_04!B12 |
| Share of adjusted effective labor pool | 0.9142857142857143 | 0.9142857142857143 | Unchanged | Model_04!C12 |
| Share of adjusted effective labor pool | 1.2 | 1.2 | Unchanged | Model_04!D12 |
| TOTAL PROJECT-DEDICATED POPULATION | 483768.857142857 | 483768.857142857 | Unchanged | Model_04!B134 |
| River/harbor corridor [Wave 6, bodies only] | 743.0 | 743.0 | Unchanged | Model_04!B135 |
| Domestic/process water included through WaterFeedback_21 | FoodSystem_13 capacity check | PASS / lower-bound | OPEN / lower-bound | Millers / bakers / brewers | PASS | PASS | Unchanged | PersonCategoryMatrix_22!J17 |
| REQUIRED SUPPORT SUBTOTAL | 24671 | 24671 | Unchanged | VillageSufficiency_39!B11 |
| Grain transport | 150 | 150 | Unchanged | WorkforceLedger_05!C16 |
| On-site rostered total | 47316 | 47316 | Unchanged | WorkforceLedger_05!C18 |
| Off-site dedicated labor, rostered | 49650 | 49650 | Unchanged | WorkforceLedger_05!C20 |
| Off-site dedicated labor, rostered | 10036 | 10036 | Unchanged | WorkforceLedger_05!D20 |
| Total project-dedicated population | 483768.857142857 | 483768.857142857 | Unchanged | WorkforceLedger_05!C21 |
Closure Results (76)
| Label | Baseline value | Current scenario value | Change status | Workbook reference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current partial project-dedicated population | Required to close | 281642.85714285716 | 281642.85714285716 | Unchanged | ClosureRequirements_15!B5 |
| Share of high-end 1.6M Old Kingdom population | Required to close | 0.17602678571428573 | 0.17602678571428573 | Unchanged | ClosureRequirements_15!B6 |
| Current model vs 150k screen | 150,000 project-dedicated people | 1.8776190476190477 | 1.8776190476190477 | Unchanged | ClosureRequirements_15!B8 |
| Share of 1.6M kingdom | 0.03125 | 0.03125 | Unchanged | ClosureRequirements_15!B15 |
| Share of 1.6M kingdom | 0.046875 | 0.046875 | Unchanged | ClosureRequirements_15!B16 |
| ClosureRequirements_15!B17 | 0.0625 | 0.0625 | Unchanged | ClosureRequirements_15!B17 |
| ClosureRequirements_15!B18 | 0.078125 | 0.078125 | Unchanged | ClosureRequirements_15!B18 |
| ClosureRequirements_15!B19 | 0.09375 | 0.09375 | Unchanged | ClosureRequirements_15!B19 |
| ClosureRequirements_15!B20 | 0.125 | 0.125 | Unchanged | ClosureRequirements_15!B20 |
| Project rostered labor excl. annual-yield farmers (live) | 54142.0 | 54142.0 | Unchanged | ClosureSensitivity_45!B4 |
| ClosureSensitivity_45!B9 | 1.1279583333333332 | 1.1279583333333332 | Unchanged | ClosureSensitivity_45!B9 |
| ClosureSensitivity_45!C9 | 0.8459687500000002 | 0.8459687500000002 | Unchanged | ClosureSensitivity_45!C9 |
| ClosureSensitivity_45!B10 | 1.0254166666666664 | 1.0254166666666664 | Unchanged | ClosureSensitivity_45!B10 |
| ClosureSensitivity_45!C10 | 0.7690625000000002 | 0.7690625000000002 | Unchanged | ClosureSensitivity_45!C10 |
| ClosureSensitivity_45!D10 | 0.61525 | 0.61525 | Unchanged | ClosureSensitivity_45!D10 |
| ClosureSensitivity_45!B11 | 0.9399652777777776 | 0.9399652777777776 | Unchanged | ClosureSensitivity_45!B11 |
| ClosureSensitivity_45!C11 | 0.7049739583333334 | 0.7049739583333334 | Unchanged | ClosureSensitivity_45!C11 |
| ClosureSensitivity_45!D11 | 0.5639791666666667 | 0.5639791666666667 | Unchanged | ClosureSensitivity_45!D11 |
| ClosureSensitivity_45!B12 | 0.8676602564102563 | 0.8676602564102563 | Unchanged | ClosureSensitivity_45!B12 |
| ClosureSensitivity_45!C12 | 0.6507451923076925 | 0.6507451923076925 | Unchanged | ClosureSensitivity_45!C12 |
| ClosureSensitivity_45!D12 | 0.5205961538461539 | 0.5205961538461539 | Unchanged | ClosureSensitivity_45!D12 |
| ClosureSensitivity_45!B13 | 0.8056845238095236 | 0.8056845238095236 | Unchanged | ClosureSensitivity_45!B13 |
| ClosureSensitivity_45!C13 | 0.6042633928571429 | 0.6042633928571429 | Unchanged | ClosureSensitivity_45!C13 |
| ClosureSensitivity_45!D13 | 0.48341071428571425 | 0.48341071428571425 | Unchanged | ClosureSensitivity_45!D13 |
| ClosureSensitivity_45!B14 | 0.751972222222222 | 0.751972222222222 | Unchanged | ClosureSensitivity_45!B14 |
| ClosureSensitivity_45!C14 | 0.5639791666666667 | 0.5639791666666667 | Unchanged | ClosureSensitivity_45!C14 |
| ClosureSensitivity_45!D14 | 0.4511833333333333 | 0.4511833333333333 | Unchanged | ClosureSensitivity_45!D14 |
| ClosureSensitivity_45!B18 | 0.9023666666666665 | 0.9023666666666665 | Unchanged | ClosureSensitivity_45!B18 |
| ClosureSensitivity_45!C18 | 0.6767750000000001 | 0.6767750000000001 | Unchanged | ClosureSensitivity_45!C18 |
| ClosureSensitivity_45!B19 | 0.8203333333333331 | 0.8203333333333331 | Unchanged | ClosureSensitivity_45!B19 |
| ClosureSensitivity_45!C19 | 0.6152500000000001 | 0.6152500000000001 | Unchanged | ClosureSensitivity_45!C19 |
| ClosureSensitivity_45!B20 | 0.751972222222222 | 0.751972222222222 | Unchanged | ClosureSensitivity_45!B20 |
| ClosureSensitivity_45!C20 | 0.5639791666666667 | 0.5639791666666667 | Unchanged | ClosureSensitivity_45!C20 |
| DEMOGRAPHIC CLOSURE - SUSTAINED MOBILIZATION VS DOCUMENTED CAPACITY: can the kingdom survive the commitment? | DEMOGRAPHIC CLOSURE - SUSTAINED MOBILIZATION VS DOCUMENTED CAPACITY: can the kingdom survive the commitment? | DEMOGRAPHIC CLOSURE - SUSTAINED MOBILIZATION VS DOCUMENTED CAPACITY: can the kingdom survive the commitment? | Unchanged | DemographicClosure_46!A1 |
| Old Kingdom population (Butzer anchor) | 1600000 | 1600000 | Unchanged | DemographicClosure_46!B5 |
| Prime-age male cohort | 384000.0 | 384000.0 | Unchanged | DemographicClosure_46!B6 |
| Ex-farmer Test 1 labor (rostered) | 54142.0 | 54142.0 | Unchanged | DemographicClosure_46!B7 |
| Median working span (death - entry) | 17.5 | 17.5 | Unchanged | DemographicClosure_46!B8 |
| Replacement multiplier (mortality only) | 1.14285714285714 | 1.14285714285714 | Unchanged | DemographicClosure_46!B9 |
| Build duration (live model lever) | 20 | 20 | Unchanged | DemographicClosure_46!B10 |
| Concurrent standing roster | 47374.250000000124 | 47374.250000000124 | Unchanged | DemographicClosure_46!B11 |
| Standing share of prime-age cohort (concurrent) | 0.12337044270833365 | 0.12337044270833365 | Unchanged | DemographicClosure_46!B14 |
| Rostered share of prime-age cohort | 0.14099479166666667 | 0.14099479166666667 | Unchanged | DemographicClosure_46!B15 |
| Cross-reference: ex-farmer share of non-farm pool | 0.7049739583333334 | 0.7049739583333334 | Unchanged | DemographicClosure_46!B16 |
| Cumulative distinct men over build | 54142.00000000014 | 54142.00000000014 | Unchanged | DemographicClosure_46!B19 |
| Mortality replacements consumed over build | 6767.750000000015 | 6767.750000000015 | Unchanged | DemographicClosure_46!B20 |
| Sensitivity: cumulative distinct men, 30-yr build | 81213.00000000022 | 81213.00000000022 | Unchanged | DemographicClosure_46!B21 |
| Sensitivity: replacements consumed, 30-yr build | 33838.750000000095 | 33838.750000000095 | Unchanged | DemographicClosure_46!B22 |
| Annual project intake of fresh prime-age males | 2707.100000000007 | 2707.100000000007 | Unchanged | DemographicClosure_46!B23 |
| Annual maturing male cohort, kingdom-wide | 21942.85714285714 | 21942.85714285714 | Unchanged | DemographicClosure_46!B24 |
| Project share of every maturing male cohort | 0.12337044270833367 | 0.12337044270833367 | Unchanged | DemographicClosure_46!B25 |
| Reading | ONE IN EIGHT OF EVERY MATURING MALE COHORT, NATIONALLY, EVERY YEAR, FOR THE WHOLE BUILD - FOR ONE MONUMENT'S NON-FARM DEPARTMENTS ALONE | ONE IN EIGHT OF EVERY MATURING MALE COHORT, NATIONALLY, EVERY YEAR, FOR THE WHOLE BUILD - FOR ONE MONUMENT'S NON-FARM DEPARTMENTS ALONE | Unchanged | DemographicClosure_46!B26 |
| Maximum documented OK mobilization (Weni levy) | 50000 | 50000 | Unchanged | DemographicClosure_46!B29 |
| Character of Weni levy | EPISODIC - NATIONAL EMERGENCY POSTURE, KINGDOM-WIDE + FOREIGN AUXILIARIES, DISBANDED AFTER EACH CAMPAIGN | EPISODIC - NATIONAL EMERGENCY POSTURE, KINGDOM-WIDE + FOREIGN AUXILIARIES, DISBANDED AFTER EACH CAMPAIGN | Unchanged | DemographicClosure_46!B30 |
| Project standing mobilization (concurrent) | 47374.250000000124 | 47374.250000000124 | Unchanged | DemographicClosure_46!B31 |
| Project workforce vs. Weni mobilization maximum — concurrent | 94.7485% | 94.7485% | Unchanged | DemographicClosure_46!B32 |
| Project workforce vs. Weni mobilization maximum — rostered | 108.284% | 108.284% | Unchanged | DemographicClosure_46!B33 |
| Character of project mobilization | CONTINUOUS FOR 20-30 YEARS - DOMESTIC NON-FARM POOL ONLY - ARMY MUST STILL EXIST ON TOP | CONTINUOUS FOR 20-30 YEARS - DOMESTIC NON-FARM POOL ONLY - ARMY MUST STILL EXIST ON TOP | Unchanged | DemographicClosure_46!B34 |
| Documented mobilization limit test | AT OR ABOVE THE KINGDOM'S MAXIMUM DOCUMENTED MOBILIZATION - HELD CONTINUOUSLY | AT OR ABOVE THE KINGDOM'S MAXIMUM DOCUMENTED MOBILIZATION - HELD CONTINUOUSLY | Unchanged | DemographicClosure_46!B35 |
| Demographic closure verdict | DOES NOT CLOSE - SUSTAINED MOBILIZATION EXCEEDS MAXIMUM DOCUMENTED CAPACITY | DOES NOT CLOSE - SUSTAINED MOBILIZATION EXCEEDS MAXIMUM DOCUMENTED CAPACITY | Unchanged | DemographicClosure_46!B38 |
| Summary | The conventional model requires the kingdom to hold its maximum documented emergency mobilization as a permanent 20-30 year baseline, consuming one-eighth of every maturing male cohort, before the army, temples, trade, administration, or any other monument employs anyone. | The conventional model requires the kingdom to hold its maximum documented emergency mobilization as a permanent 20-30 year baseline, consuming one-eighth of every maturing male cohort, before the army, temples, trade, administration, or any other monument employs anyone. | Unchanged | DemographicClosure_46!B39 |
| Scope rule | CONTROL/VERDICT LAYER ONLY - THIS SHEET DOES NOT ADD BURDEN TO M3 | CONTROL/VERDICT LAYER ONLY - THIS SHEET DOES NOT ADD BURDEN TO M3 | Unchanged | DemographicClosure_46!B41 |
| Source caveats (flagged once, both generous) | Weni is 6th Dynasty, ~200 years after Khufu (later, larger state sets the ceiling HIGHER); the figure is rhetorical and read at maximum (a higher Weni makes the pyramid look easier). Palermo Stone (Snefru: 7,000 Nubian captives, 200,000 cattle) confirms the expeditionary-levy character of the OK military - temporary levies, no professional standing army. | Weni is 6th Dynasty, ~200 years after Khufu (later, larger state sets the ceiling HIGHER); the figure is rhetorical and read at maximum (a higher Weni makes the pyramid look easier). Palermo Stone (Snefru: 7,000 Nubian captives, 200,000 cattle) confirms the expeditionary-levy character of the OK military - temporary levies, no professional standing army. | Unchanged | DemographicClosure_46!B43 |
| Share of kingdom | 0.30235553571428564 | 0.30235553571428564 | Unchanged | KingdomCapacity_17!B16 |
| Share of kingdom | Manual source input from SRC-BUTZER-POP | 0.30235553571428564 | 0.30235553571428564 | Unchanged | KingdomCapacity_17!C16 |
| Current model / 150k screen | Between 300,000 and 500,000 bands | 3.225125714285713 | 3.225125714285713 | Unchanged | KingdomCapacity_17!B18 |
| Current model / 150k screen | Capacity-band table below | 3.225125714285713 | 3.225125714285713 | Unchanged | KingdomCapacity_17!C18 |
| Excess above 150k screen | Between 300,000 and 500,000 bands | 333768.857142857 | 333768.857142857 | Unchanged | KingdomCapacity_17!B19 |
| Excess above 150k screen | Capacity-band table below | 333768.857142857 | 333768.857142857 | Unchanged | KingdomCapacity_17!C19 |
| Project-dedicated LABOR (rostered, all depts) | 100492.0 | 100492.0 | Unchanged | NationalClosure_41!B7 |
| Project-dedicated labor EXCLUDING annual-yield farmers (domestic, after imported-labor lever) | 54142.0 | 54142.0 | Unchanged | NationalClosure_41!B8 |
| Project labor as share of able-bodied | 0.14099479166666667 | 0.14099479166666667 | Unchanged | NationalClosure_41!B12 |
| Project labor as share of NON-FARM able-bodied | 70.4974% | 70.4974% | Unchanged | NationalClosure_41!B13 |
| National mobilization test | EXCEEDS SINGLE-PROJECT MOBILIZATION CEILING | EXCEEDS SINGLE-PROJECT MOBILIZATION CEILING | Unchanged | NationalClosure_41!B14 |
| Farm surplus share (lever) | 0.25 | 0.25 | Unchanged | NationalClosure_41!B18 |
| Non-farm able-bodied labor share | 0.7049739583333334 | 0.7049739583333334 | Unchanged | NationalClosure_41!B25 |
Food System (6)
| Label | Baseline value | Current scenario value | Change status | Workbook reference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net surplus per active farmer after own household support | 0.5855020796197266 | 0.5855020796197266 | Unchanged | FoodFeedback_28!B46 |
| Total project-dedicated population if food loop passes | 869945.5794588348 | 869945.5794588348 | Unchanged | FoodFeedback_28!B54 |
| Required output per active farmer to preserve current farm net surplus share | Live value | 1.619330560507031 | 1.619330560507031 | Unchanged | FoodFeedback_28!B58 |
| Gross-output farmers implied by current net surplus share | 181126.08890020655 | 181126.08890020655 | Unchanged | FoodFeedback_28!B62 |
| Processing labor, total | 24171 | 24171 | Unchanged | FoodSystem_13!B20 |
| Food-processing labor total | 24171 | 24171 | Unchanged | ProcessingFuelContainers_30!B14 |
Water & Sanitation (3)
| Label | Baseline value | Current scenario value | Change status | Workbook reference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Combined first-order support labor | 1128 | 1128 | Unchanged | SanitationMedical_29!B34 |
| Combined first-order support labor | 1960.6647935615977 | 1960.6647935615977 | Unchanged | SanitationMedical_29!C34 |
| Combined first-order support labor | 7842.659174246391 | 7842.659174246391 | Unchanged | SanitationMedical_29!D34 |
Timber & Transport (27)
| Label | Baseline value | Current scenario value | Change status | Workbook reference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crew (mass) | 3.2 | 3.2 | Unchanged | BargeTimber_43!B7 |
| Payload subtotal (excl. hull) | 101.2 | 101.2 | Unchanged | BargeTimber_43!B9 |
| Standing acacia felled (incl. conversion waste) | 1129.0817444663596 | 1129.0817444663596 | Unchanged | BargeTimber_43!B19 |
| Total active ramp-system crew | 27.098131657063032 | 27.098131657063032 | Unchanged | RampSystem_32!B106 |
| Total active ramp-system crew | 108.09065828531514 | 108.09065828531514 | Unchanged | RampSystem_32!C106 |
| Total active ramp-system crew | 311.47197485594546 | 311.47197485594546 | Unchanged | RampSystem_32!D106 |
| Total active ramp-system crew | 622.9439497118909 | 622.9439497118909 | Unchanged | RampSystem_32!E106 |
| Total material handled over build (m3) | 212500.0 | 212500.0 | Unchanged | RampSystem_32!B109 |
| Total material handled over build (m3) | 1062500.0 | 1062500.0 | Unchanged | RampSystem_32!C109 |
| Total material handled over build (m3) | 3187500.0 | 3187500.0 | Unchanged | RampSystem_32!D109 |
| Total material handled over build (m3) | 6375000.0 | 6375000.0 | Unchanged | RampSystem_32!E109 |
| Total material handled mass (t) | 382500.0 | 382500.0 | Unchanged | RampSystem_32!B110 |
| Total material handled mass (t) | 1912500.0 | 1912500.0 | Unchanged | RampSystem_32!C110 |
| Total material handled mass (t) | 5737500.0 | 5737500.0 | Unchanged | RampSystem_32!D110 |
| Total material handled mass (t) | 11475000.0 | 11475000.0 | Unchanged | RampSystem_32!E110 |
| Barge crews rostered | 557.0 | 557.0 | Unchanged | RiverHarbor_47!B24 |
| Harbor gangs rostered | 140.0 | 140.0 | Unchanged | RiverHarbor_47!B26 |
| Pilotage rostered | 46.0 | 46.0 | Unchanged | RiverHarbor_47!B28 |
| TOTAL RIVER/HARBOR ROSTERED | 743.0 | 743.0 | Unchanged | RiverHarbor_47!B29 |
| Crew-days over campaign | 54605.76923076923 | 54605.76923076923 | Unchanged | RiverHarbor_47!B32 |
| Grain over campaign (t) | 54.605769230769226 | 54.605769230769226 | Unchanged | RiverHarbor_47!B33 |
| Provisions capacity check (t) | 300 | 300 | Unchanged | RiverHarbor_47!B34 |
| Headway per team (team + spec gap) | 48.0 | 48.0 | Unchanged | RouteCapacity_12!B5 |
| TOTAL SIMULTANEOUS HAUL LANES | 7 | 7 | Unchanged | RouteCapacity_12!B13 |
| TOTAL TIMBER PER YEAR | 4130.476955143621 | 4130.476955143621 | Unchanged | TimberLabor_40!B7 |
| Barge hull timber, felled (Wave 5 feed) - native acacia, yard-built | 80.64869603331141 | 80.64869603331141 | Unchanged | TimberLabor_40!B8 |
| Subtotal, direct timber labor | 819 | 819 | Unchanged | TimberLabor_40!B16 |
Granite (3)
| Label | Baseline value | Current scenario value | Change status | Workbook reference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Granite operation active labor (peak campaign) | 1601.0 | 1601.0 | Unchanged | GraniteAswan_42!B36 |
| Rostered (x roster/replacement) | 2783.0 | 2783.0 | Unchanged | GraniteAswan_42!B37 |
| Status | INTEGRATED INTO M3 (Wave 5) - bodies only; capability gaps remain FINDINGS; river corridor support now priced in RiverHarbor_47 (Wave 6, v0.63) | INTEGRATED INTO M3 (Wave 5) - bodies only; capability gaps remain FINDINGS; river corridor support now priced in RiverHarbor_47 (Wave 6, v0.63) | Unchanged | GraniteAswan_42!B39 |
Findings & Validation (24)
| Label | Baseline value | Current scenario value | Change status | Workbook reference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feedback-solved food support population | Separate food-method fork | Active labor | FoodFeedback_28 | 144412.66432775673 | 144412.66432775673 | Unchanged | DiagnosticIntegration_35!D5 |
| Feedback-solved food support population | Rostered labor | FoodFeedback_28 | 144412.66432775673 | 144412.66432775673 | Unchanged | DiagnosticIntegration_35!E5 |
| Sanitation / medical / cleaning labor | First-order support diagnostic | Active labor | SanitationMedical_29 | 1128 | 1128 | Unchanged | DiagnosticIntegration_35!D6 |
| F1 (M1): Hauling rostered labor vs adjusted effective labor pool: | 8761 | 8761 | Unchanged | Findings_09!B3 |
| F2 (M2): On-site rostered labor, four priced departments: | 47316 | 47316 | Unchanged | Findings_09!B4 |
| F3 (M2): Implied village population vs excavated capacity of 25,000: | 281642.857142857 | 281642.857142857 | Unchanged | Findings_09!B5 |
| F4 (M3, partial): Total project-dedicated population: | 483768.857142857 | 483768.857142857 | Unchanged | Findings_09!B6 |
| F22 (Granite): Aswan expedition integrated into M3 (Wave 5, bodies only). | Peak campaign corps of 1,601 active / 2,783 rostered enters M3 with no family multiplier (expedition concession). Shore-lift, refloat, and mid-route repair capability gaps remain findings, not priced mechanisms. | Peak campaign corps of 1,601 active / 2,783 rostered enters M3 with no family multiplier (expedition concession). Shore-lift, refloat, and mid-route repair capability gaps remain findings, not priced mechanisms. | Unchanged | Findings_09!B41 |
| F23 (Barge feed): Granite barge felled timber feeds TimberLabor_40 (Wave 5). | Felled barge acacia of 80.6 m3/yr enters felling/sawing/overhead labor. Cedar-import voyage and Giza overland haul lines are excluded because hulls are native acacia built at riverside yards - generous to the conventional scenario. | Felled barge acacia of 80.6 m3/yr enters felling/sawing/overhead labor. Cedar-import voyage and Giza overland haul lines are excluded because hulls are native acacia built at riverside yards - generous to the conventional scenario. | Unchanged | Findings_09!B42 |
| F24 (Numerator ruling): Test 1 reports the ex-farmer labor share. | Ruling 2026-07-09: annual-yield farmers (46,350 rostered) are excluded from the Test 1 numerator because their burden is priced in Test 2. Ex-farmer share of non-farm pool: 70.5%. Inclusive share retained as a transparency line. | Ruling 2026-07-09: annual-yield farmers (46,350 rostered) are excluded from the Test 1 numerator because their burden is priced in Test 2. Ex-farmer share of non-farm pool: 70.5%. Inclusive share retained as a transparency line. | Unchanged | Findings_09!B43 |
| F26 (River/harbor): Granite corridor support organization priced. | F26 (River/harbor): Granite corridor support organization priced. | F26 (River/harbor): Granite corridor support organization priced. | Unchanged | Findings_09!A45 |
| F26 (River/harbor): Granite corridor support organization priced. | RiverHarbor_47 (Wave 6): barge crews, harbor gangs at both ends, and pilotage enter M3 as bodies only, anchored to the Diary of Merer - the mainstream's own document. The voyage schedule is feasible on paper (~1.1 barge-seasons for 30 pieces); the burden is the standing organization. Gates 1-4 in GraniteAswan_42 remain unresolved capability findings. Army-sourcing objection pre-answered: soldiers come from the same prime-age cohort; the numerator counts bodies. | RiverHarbor_47 (Wave 6): barge crews, harbor gangs at both ends, and pilotage enter M3 as bodies only, anchored to the Diary of Merer - the mainstream's own document. The voyage schedule is feasible on paper (~1.1 barge-seasons for 30 pieces); the burden is the standing organization. Gates 1-4 in GraniteAswan_42 remain unresolved capability findings. Army-sourcing objection pre-answered: soldiers come from the same prime-age cohort; the numerator counts bodies. | Unchanged | Findings_09!B45 |
| F26 (River/harbor): Granite corridor support organization priced. | RiverHarbor_47 / GraniteAswan_42 / SRC-MERER | RiverHarbor_47 / GraniteAswan_42 / SRC-MERER | Unchanged | Findings_09!C45 |
| Objection | "The army crewed the barges and harbors." | "The army crewed the barges and harbors." | Unchanged | Objections_10!A21 |
| Model response | Changes nothing. Soldiers are drawn from the same 384,000-man prime-age cohort; the Test 1 numerator counts bodies regardless of which state department supplies them. And an army standing crew duty on a 20-30 year monument corridor is not garrisoning borders or fielding campaigns - the demographic closure comparator (Weni) already prices what the kingdom could mobilize and for how long. | Changes nothing. Soldiers are drawn from the same 384,000-man prime-age cohort; the Test 1 numerator counts bodies regardless of which state department supplies them. And an army standing crew duty on a 20-30 year monument corridor is not garrisoning borders or fielding campaigns - the demographic closure comparator (Weni) already prices what the kingdom could mobilize and for how long. | Unchanged | Objections_10!B21 |
| Total project-dedicated population ties across sheets. | 480242.85714285716 | 480242.85714285716 | Unchanged | QAChecks_08!F12 |
| Final shaping/trim | 0.5 | 0.5 | Unchanged | ShapingSetting_33!D51 |
| Final shaping/trim | 25.714285714285715 | 25.714285714285715 | Unchanged | ShapingSetting_33!E51 |
| Final shaping/trim | 44.69600593225527 | 44.69600593225527 | Unchanged | ShapingSetting_33!F51 |
| Setting/alignment support | 0.4 | 0.4 | Unchanged | ShapingSetting_33!D52 |
| Setting/alignment support | 82.28571428571429 | 82.28571428571429 | Unchanged | ShapingSetting_33!E52 |
| Setting/alignment support | 143.02721898321687 | 143.02721898321687 | Unchanged | ShapingSetting_33!F52 |
| Rework/correction | 0.05 | 0.05 | Unchanged | ShapingSetting_33!C54 |
| Rework/correction | 108.0 | 108.0 | Unchanged | ShapingSetting_33!D54 |
Assumptions & Inputs (4)
| Label | Baseline value | Current scenario value | Change status | Workbook reference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reference labor pool | 3000 | 3000 | Unchanged | Assumptions_02!E16 |
| Village capacity (excavated) | 25000 | 25000 | Unchanged | Assumptions_02!E17 |
| Aswan-Giza river corridor distance (km each way) | 890 | 890 | Unchanged | Assumptions_02!E94 |
| Aswan-Giza river corridor (each way) | 890 | 890 | Unchanged | Inputs_03!B193 |
Baseline Facts
Technical detail — expand for tables, workbook references, and exact values
Baseline Closure Results
| Measure | Baseline value | Subsystem | Output type | Workbook reference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Project labor as share of NON-FARM able-bodied | 70.4974% | National closure | Metric | NationalClosure_41!B13 |
| National mobilization test | EXCEEDS SINGLE-PROJECT MOBILIZATION CEILING | National closure | Status | NationalClosure_41!B14 |
| Project workforce vs. Weni mobilization maximum — concurrent | 94.7485% | Demographic closure | Metric | DemographicClosure_46!B32 |
| Project workforce vs. Weni mobilization maximum — rostered | 108.284% | Demographic closure | Metric | DemographicClosure_46!B33 |
| Documented mobilization limit test | AT OR ABOVE THE KINGDOM'S MAXIMUM DOCUMENTED MOBILIZATION - HELD CONTINUOUSLY | Demographic closure | Status | DemographicClosure_46!B35 |
| Demographic closure verdict | DOES NOT CLOSE - SUSTAINED MOBILIZATION EXCEEDS MAXIMUM DOCUMENTED CAPACITY | Demographic closure | Conclusion | DemographicClosure_46!B38 |
Evidence Provenance
Recorded Sources and References
Sources supporting the displayed closure results
Computation Provenance
- Workbook version
- v0.64
- Workbook SHA-256
- 71fc66494b5626611c57c9493bfd5341e31b1a1ced7063fc83fee2961e8b2440
- Baseline tag
- v0.64-baseline
- Engine package
- qa_shadow_model
- Engine commit
- 5d420bb2ae8a4763c4cc32ad846884c7581d1a18
- Target registry version
- gp.v064.targets.v1
Scenario Provenance
- Entered by
- browser-foundation
- Entered at
- 2026-07-15T12:00:00+00:00
- Source note
- Browser Foundation predefined no-op scenario.
- Justification
- Browser Foundation verifies ReviewPageContract hosting.
- Evidence reference
- Browser Foundation local development scenario.
Baseline Closure Outputs
| Workbook reference | Source module | Provenance note | Value type | Comparison capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NationalClosure_41!B13 | national_closure | Formula-backed Test 1 metric used by NationalClosure_41!B14. | float | numeric_delta |
| NationalClosure_41!B14 | national_closure | Formula-backed Test 1 status preserving workbook status strings. | string | categorical_transition |
| DemographicClosure_46!B32 | demographic_closure | Formula-backed demographic closure metric feeding Test C status. | float | numeric_delta |
| DemographicClosure_46!B33 | demographic_closure | Formula-backed demographic closure metric feeding Test C status. | float | numeric_delta |
| DemographicClosure_46!B35 | demographic_closure | Formula-backed Test C status preserving workbook status strings. | string | categorical_transition |
| DemographicClosure_46!B38 | demographic_closure | Explicit demographic closure verdict output. | string | categorical_transition |
Changed Closure Outputs
| Workbook reference | Source module | Provenance note | Value type | Comparison capability |
|---|
Evidence Sources
Register identifiers are kept verbatim; their prefixes mark the entry type:
- SRC-
- External or cited source
- JUDG-
- Modeling judgment or control rule
- OPEN-
- Unresolved evidence requirement
- STEEL-
- Named model mechanism or credit
- SRC-METHOD-
- Internal method / governance reference
Source register (81 entries, verbatim from SourceRegister_01)
SRC-QUARRY-NOVA External or cited source — Quarry productivity trial
- Input / variable
- Quarry productivity trial
- Source / author
- NOVA This Old Pyramid trial (Lehner/Hopkins)
- Year
- 1992
- Value used
- 1.4 man-days/block
- Use type
- Transformed
- Confidence
- High
- Page / table / figure
- OPEN ITEM
- Notes
- Iron tools, <1 t blocks; scaling factors are engineering judgment.
SRC-ROPE-CHATHAM External or cited source — Ropemaking benchmark
- Input / variable
- Ropemaking benchmark
- Source / author
- Chatham Royal Dockyard records
- Year
- 1798
- Value used
- 274 men
- Use type
- Direct
- Confidence
- High
- Page / table / figure
- OPEN ITEM
- Notes
- Hand-era ropeyard benchmark.
SRC-VILLAGECAP External or cited source — Worker village capacity
- Input / variable
- Worker village capacity
- Source / author
- Lehner 2002, "The Pyramid Age Settlement of the Southern Mount at Giza," JARCE 39:27-74; Lehner 2015, "Labor and the Pyramids," in Steinkeller & Hudson (eds.), Labor in the Ancient World, ISLET, pp. 397-522 (sight-verified); Lehner & Tavares 2010, pp. 171-216
- Year
- var.
- Value used
- ~25,000 persons - RE-BADGED ASSUMPTION (generous): ceiling set at top of mainstream workforce range (SRC-NOVA-WORKFORCE); published excavated-capacity arithmetic (gallery complex) is smaller; any smaller ceiling worsens M2
- Use type
- Direct
- Confidence
- High
- Page / table / figure
- OPEN ITEM - needs exact AERA publication/page
- Notes
- AERA/Lehner worker-town capacity; verify exact 25,000 basis before public citation.
SRC-LAKE-KHUFU External or cited source — Harbor basin / delivery point
- Input / variable
- Harbor basin / delivery point
- Source / author
- Lehner 2020, "Lake Khufu: On the Waterfront at Giza," in Barta & Janak (eds.), Profane Landscapes, Sacred Spaces, Equinox, pp. 191-292, DOI 10.1558/equinox.29191 (open access); short form Lehner 2014, AERAGRAM 15.1-2:13-23; corrob. Sheisha et al. 2022, PNAS 119
- Year
- 2020
- Value used
- basin at plateau edge
- Use type
- Context anchor
- Confidence
- Medium
- Page / table / figure
- Lake Khufu / Lehner 2020 PDF - page verification needed
- Notes
- Use as context anchor only until exact figure/page is tied to workbook input.
SRC-GPMP-NILE External or cited source — Nile channel distance
- Input / variable
- Nile channel distance
- Source / author
- Lehner / GPMP reconstruction
- Year
- var.
- Value used
- ~1 km east of village
- Use type
- Context anchor
- Confidence
- Medium
- Page / table / figure
- OPEN ITEM - GPMP/Lehner page verification needed
- Notes
- Channel distance remains context anchor; exact value needs map/page citation.
SRC-MERER External or cited source — Water transport practice
- Input / variable
- Water transport practice
- Source / author
- Wadi el-Jarf papyri / Merer diary
- Year
- 2013+
- Value used
- boat deliveries to basin
- Use type
- Context anchor
- Confidence
- High
- Page / table / figure
- Tallet / Wadi el-Jarf publication needed
- Notes
- Use Merer as delivery-practice context only; not a complete logistics model.
SRC-BIRNASIB External or cited source — Sinai copper output ceiling
- Input / variable
- Sinai copper output ceiling
- Source / author
- Slag ~100,000 t: Abdel-Motelib et al. 2012, Metalla 19.1/2; Hauptmann 2007; Rothenberg 1987. Metallic copper ~5,000 t: Bachmann calculation
- Year
- var.
- Value used
- 5,000-5,500 t all-time; slag mostly LBA/New Kingdom, so the OK-era ceiling is lower - the all-time figure is generous to the mainstream as used
- Use type
- Direct
- Confidence
- Medium
- Page / table / figure
- OPEN ITEM - verify archaeological citation/page
- Notes
- Bir Nasib total output needs primary/archaeometallurgy citation; PorterGeo/Petrie can be interim trail only.
SRC-BUTZER-POP External or cited source — Old Kingdom national population
- Input / variable
- Old Kingdom national population
- Source / author
- Butzer 1976, Early Hydraulic Civilization in Egypt, Univ. of Chicago Press, p. 83, Table 4 ("Hypothetical demographic development in ancient Egypt"); ch. 7, pp. 81-98; fig. 13, p. 85; open-access ISAC/Oriental Institute PDF
- Year
- 1976
- Value used
- 1.6 million at 2500 B.C. (p. 83 row sight-verified 2026-07-11); the source itself labels the table "hypothetical" - carried as a stress-test denominator, sensitivity at 2.0M/2.5M in ClosureSensitivity_45
- Use type
- Direct
- Confidence
- High
- Page / table / figure
- Table 4, p. 82 / PDF p. 98
- Notes
- Table 4 lists total population of 1.6 million for 2500 B.C.; Butzer cautions demographic values are hypothetical working estimates, not census figures. URL and stress test are documented in KingdomCapacity_17.
SRC-CALENDAR External or cited source — Work calendar / absence
- Input / variable
- Work calendar / absence
- Source / author
- Deir el-Medina ostraca, e.g. BM 5634
- Year
- NK
- Value used
- 10-day week, rest days, absences
- Use type
- Pattern anchor
- Confidence
- Medium
- Page / table / figure
- OPEN ITEM
- Notes
- New Kingdom evidence applied cautiously to Old Kingdom.
SRC-MORTALITY External or cited source — Worker mortality
- Input / variable
- Worker mortality
- Source / author
- Giza worker cemetery skeletal studies
- Year
- var.
- Value used
- male death 30-35; healed fractures; arthritis
- Use type
- Direct
- Confidence
- High
- Page / table / figure
- OPEN ITEM
- Notes
- Drives replacement multiplier; skeletal aging caveat remains.
SRC-HOUSEHOLD External or cited source — Household size
- Input / variable
- Household size
- Source / author
- Kemp; Kahun archaeology
- Year
- var.
- Value used
- avg 6, range 5-8 per house
- Use type
- Transformed
- Confidence
- Medium
- Page / table / figure
- OPEN ITEM
- Notes
- Transformed to project household/dependent assumptions.
SRC-BLOCKMASS External or cited source — Block mass range
- Input / variable
- Block mass range
- Source / author
- Mainstream literature
- Year
- var.
- Value used
- 2,500-3,000 kg
- Use type
- Direct
- Confidence
- High
- Page / table / figure
- OPEN ITEM
- Notes
- Default 3,000; steelman 2,500.
SRC-BUILDDURATION External or cited source — Build duration
- Input / variable
- Build duration
- Source / author
- Mainstream Khufu reign framework
- Year
- var.
- Value used
- ~20-30 years depending scenario
- Use type
- Direct/derived
- Confidence
- High
- Page / table / figure
- OPEN ITEM
- Notes
- Workbook cadence currently tied to selected duration assumptions.
SRC-PLATEAULIFT External or cited source — Plateau lift / basin to base
- Input / variable
- Plateau lift / basin to base
- Source / author
- Site topography
- Year
- var.
- Value used
- ~40 m
- Use type
- Direct
- Confidence
- Medium
- Page / table / figure
- OPEN ITEM
- Notes
- Needs published elevation anchor.
SRC-SINAI-EXPEDITION External or cited source — Sinai expedition composition
- Input / variable
- Sinai expedition composition
- Source / author
- Mining inscriptions
- Year
- var.
- Value used
- parties of several hundred
- Use type
- Context anchor
- Confidence
- Medium
- Page / table / figure
- OPEN ITEM
- Notes
- Mostly later evidence; Dyn 4 installations noted.
JUDG-MATERIAL-BALANCE Modeling judgment or control rule — Material-balance rule
- Input / variable
- Material-balance rule
- Source / author
- Engineering / accounting principle
- Year
- n/a
- Value used
- same output cannot be spent twice
- Use type
- Methodology
- Confidence
- High
- Page / table / figure
- n/a
- Notes
- Required output assigned to the pyramid is unavailable to non-pyramid uses.
JUDG-TRACKWATER Modeling judgment or control rule — Track wetting water
- Input / variable
- Track wetting water
- Source / author
- Engineering judgment / friction-moisture requirement
- Year
- n/a
- Value used
- L/m2/hr lever
- Use type
- Judgment
- Confidence
- Medium/Low
- Page / table / figure
- OPEN ITEM
- Notes
- Water volume included; labor chain pending.
JUDG-FOOD-PARTIAL Modeling judgment or control rule — Food system partial status
- Input / variable
- Food system partial status
- Source / author
- Model method
- Year
- n/a
- Value used
- grain/fuel included; full diet pending
- Use type
- Methodology
- Confidence
- Medium
- Page / table / figure
- n/a
- Notes
- Prevents double counting of village processing labor.
JUDG-ONSITE-DOMWATER Modeling judgment or control rule — On-site domestic/process water
- Input / variable
- On-site domestic/process water
- Source / author
- Engineering judgment / minimum human-support allowance
- Year
- n/a
- Value used
- 5+2+3 L/person/day default
- Use type
- Judgment / sensitivity
- Confidence
- Medium/Low
- Page / table / figure
- OPEN ITEM
- Notes
- Quantified in HumanRequirements_20; can be loaded into main M3 via WaterFeedback_21 algebraic carrier feedback toggle.
JUDG-OFFSITE-DOMWATER Modeling judgment or control rule — Off-site project-support household water
- Input / variable
- Off-site project-support household water
- Source / author
- Engineering judgment / local-regional water footprint
- Year
- n/a
- Value used
- 5 L/person/day default
- Use type
- Judgment / sensitivity
- Confidence
- Medium/Low
- Page / table / figure
- OPEN ITEM
- Notes
- Quantified as local/regional footprint, not Giza-delivered water.
JUDG-CAMPWATER Modeling judgment or control rule — Remote expedition/camp water
- Input / variable
- Remote expedition/camp water
- Source / author
- Engineering judgment / remote labor camp burden
- Year
- n/a
- Value used
- 8 L/person/day default
- Use type
- Judgment / sensitivity
- Confidence
- Medium/Low
- Page / table / figure
- OPEN ITEM
- Notes
- Input lever reserved for future separation of Sinai/mining/expedition camp water.
JUDG-HUMANREQ-CONTROL Modeling judgment or control rule — Universal human requirements control
- Input / variable
- Universal human requirements control
- Source / author
- Model methodology
- Year
- n/a
- Value used
- Every counted person carries support needs
- Use type
- Methodology
- Confidence
- High
- Page / table / figure
- n/a
- Notes
- Requires food, water, rest/absence, replacement where applicable, and household support to be assigned or explicitly marked as coverage gap.
JUDG-WATERFEEDBACK Modeling judgment or control rule — Domestic water carrier feedback solution
- Input / variable
- Domestic water carrier feedback solution
- Source / author
- Model methodology
- Year
- n/a
- Value used
- algebraic carrier-village-water solution
- Use type
- Methodology
- Confidence
- High
- Page / table / figure
- n/a
- Notes
- Solves feedback between domestic/process water, water carriers, on-site rostered labor, and implied village population without circular spreadsheet formulas.
STEEL-YOUTH-LIGHTSUPPORT Named model mechanism or credit — Youth light-support credit active
- Input / variable
- Youth light-support credit active
- Source / author
- Modeling concession
- Year
- 2026
- Value used
- YES
- Use type
- Steelman concession
- Confidence
- Medium/Low
- Page / table / figure
- Workbook methodology
- Notes
- Recognizes likely intermittent youth household assistance without treating children as full adult labor.
STEEL-YOUTH-CREDIT Named model mechanism or credit — Youth light-support credit rate
- Input / variable
- Youth light-support credit rate
- Source / author
- Modeling concession
- Year
- 2026
- Value used
- 5%
- Use type
- Steelman concession
- Confidence
- Medium/Low
- Page / table / figure
- Workbook methodology
- Notes
- Bounded at 5%; higher values require separate youth labor department assumptions.
JUDG-YOUTH-PRODUCTIVITY Modeling judgment or control rule — Youth water-carrying productivity factor
- Input / variable
- Youth water-carrying productivity factor
- Source / author
- Engineering judgment
- Year
- 2026
- Value used
- 40% adult-equivalent
- Use type
- Sensitivity check only
- Confidence
- Low
- Page / table / figure
- Open item
- Notes
- Used only to estimate implied youth headcount for credit magnitude.
JUDG-WATERINFRA-GATE Modeling judgment or control rule — Water infrastructure alternatives
- Input / variable
- Water infrastructure alternatives
- Source / author
- Model methodology
- Year
- 2026
- Value used
- replacement-burden gate
- Use type
- Methodology
- Confidence
- High
- Page / table / figure
- WaterInfraAlt_27
- Notes
- Alternative water-delivery claims are not allowed to reduce M3 carrier burden unless the replacement system is assigned and cost-loaded.
OPEN-WATERINFRA-EVIDENCE Unresolved evidence requirement — Canal/depot/well/storage/animal/boat water options
- Input / variable
- Canal/depot/well/storage/animal/boat water options
- Source / author
- Open source item
- Year
- n/a
- Value used
- TBD
- Use type
- Open item
- Confidence
- Open
- Page / table / figure
- OPEN ITEM
- Notes
- Requires archaeological, geomorphic, textual, or engineering source support before any alternative is integrated into main totals.
JUDG-WATERRELIEF-SENS Modeling judgment or control rule — First-order water-relief scenarios
- Input / variable
- First-order water-relief scenarios
- Source / author
- Model sensitivity
- Year
- 2026
- Value used
- 0-90% reduction scenarios
- Use type
- Sensitivity only
- Confidence
- Medium/Low
- Page / table / figure
- WaterInfraAlt_27
- Notes
- Shows approximate first-order carrier relief only; not a main-model change until replacement burden and feedback are solved.
JUDG-FOODFEEDBACK Modeling judgment or control rule — Food farmer-household feedback
- Input / variable
- Food farmer-household feedback
- Source / author
- Model methodology
- Year
- 2026
- Value used
- positive farmer surplus required
- Use type
- Methodology
- Confidence
- High
- Page / table / figure
- FoodFeedback_28
- Notes
- Agricultural labor cannot be added as free surplus; farmer households must be supported before project surplus exists.
OPEN-GRAIN-PROD Unresolved evidence requirement — Farmer productivity / hectares per farmer
- Input / variable
- Farmer productivity / hectares per farmer
- Source / author
- Open source item
- Year
- n/a
- Value used
- TBD
- Use type
- Open item
- Confidence
- Open
- Page / table / figure
- OPEN ITEM
- Notes
- FoodFeedback_28 shows current 1.5 ha/farmer and 1.2 t/ha/yr assumptions do not generate positive surplus after household support.
OPEN-FOOD-DIST Unresolved evidence requirement — Food transport/distribution/reserve system
- Input / variable
- Food transport/distribution/reserve system
- Source / author
- Open source item
- Year
- n/a
- Value used
- TBD
- Use type
- Open item
- Confidence
- Open
- Page / table / figure
- OPEN ITEM
- Notes
- Need sourced treatment for local/off-site provisioning, Giza delivery, storage/spoilage, seed reserve, bad-flood buffer, and administrative distribution.
JUDG-SANITATION-CONTROL Modeling judgment or control rule — Sanitation/basic medical support
- Input / variable
- Sanitation/basic medical support
- Source / author
- Model methodology
- Year
- 2026
- Value used
- required-function diagnostic
- Use type
- Methodology
- Confidence
- High
- Page / table / figure
- SanitationMedical_29
- Notes
- Waste handling, cleaning, and basic care are required functions for a large worker village; sheet is diagnostic only, not main-model integration.
OPEN-SANITATION-RATES Unresolved evidence requirement — Sanitation/medical/cleaning labor rates
- Input / variable
- Sanitation/medical/cleaning labor rates
- Source / author
- Open source item
- Year
- n/a
- Value used
- TBD
- Use type
- Open item
- Confidence
- Open
- Page / table / figure
- OPEN ITEM
- Notes
- First-order rates in Inputs_03 B122:B124 are placeholders until sourced or replaced by an explicit archaeological/engineering mechanism.
JUDG-PROCESS-CONTAINER Modeling judgment or control rule — Processing/fuel/container support
- Input / variable
- Processing/fuel/container support
- Source / author
- Model methodology
- Year
- 2026
- Value used
- required-function diagnostic
- Use type
- Methodology
- Confidence
- High
- Page / table / figure
- ProcessingFuelContainers_30
- Notes
- Food, water, and fuel streams require processing, containers/handling gear, fuel, storage, and distribution; control only, not main M3 integration.
OPEN-CONTAINER-RATES Unresolved evidence requirement — Container capacity / breakage / replacement
- Input / variable
- Container capacity / breakage / replacement
- Source / author
- Open source item
- Year
- n/a
- Value used
- TBD
- Use type
- Open item
- Confidence
- Open
- Page / table / figure
- OPEN ITEM
- Notes
- Need sourced or explicitly engineered assumptions for jars, baskets, sacks, skins, breakage, production, replacement, kiln/fuel burden, and transport.
OPEN-FUEL-TRANSPORT Unresolved evidence requirement — Oven/brewery fuel collection and transport
- Input / variable
- Oven/brewery fuel collection and transport
- Source / author
- Open source item
- Year
- n/a
- Value used
- TBD
- Use type
- Open item
- Confidence
- Open
- Page / table / figure
- OPEN ITEM
- Notes
- FoodSystem_13 quantifies fuel mass/woodland footprint; labor, route, collection, storage, and fuel-delivery burden remain open.
JUDG-TIMBER-GATE Modeling judgment or control rule — Timber required-function gate
- Input / variable
- Timber required-function gate
- Source / author
- Model methodology
- Year
- 2026
- Value used
- replacement mechanism required
- Use type
- Methodology
- Confidence
- High
- Page / table / figure
- TimberSystem_31
- Notes
- Any timber reduction must identify the replacement mechanism and cost-load labor/material/transport/feedback.
OPEN-TIMBER-STOCK Unresolved evidence requirement — Structural timber stock in service
- Input / variable
- Structural timber stock in service
- Source / author
- Open model item
- Year
- n/a
- Value used
- TBD
- Use type
- Open item
- Confidence
- Open
- Page / table / figure
- OPEN ITEM
- Notes
- Requires WBS inventory for sleds, planks, levers, cribbing, anchors, boats, workshops, repair stock.
OPEN-TIMBER-SPECIES Unresolved evidence requirement — Structural wood suitability / service life
- Input / variable
- Structural wood suitability / service life
- Source / author
- Open source item
- Year
- n/a
- Value used
- TBD
- Use type
- Open item
- Confidence
- Open
- Page / table / figure
- OPEN ITEM
- Notes
- Need species, size, grade, reject, service life, and competing-use treatment for cedar/acacia/tamarisk/sycamore/palm/non-wood materials.
SRC-PALERMO-CEDAR External or cited source — Snefru cedar import comparator
- Input / variable
- Snefru cedar import comparator
- Source / author
- Palermo Stone / royal annal tradition
- Year
- Old Kingdom
- Value used
- 40 ships / ~2,745 m3 comparator
- Use type
- Context / comparator
- Confidence
- Medium
- Page / table / figure
- OPEN ITEM
- Notes
- Used only as comparator/source-control line; does not establish project availability or eliminate procurement/fabrication burden.
OPEN-TIMBER-LABOR Unresolved evidence requirement — Timber procurement/fabrication/transport labor
- Input / variable
- Timber procurement/fabrication/transport labor
- Source / author
- Open model item
- Year
- n/a
- Value used
- TBD
- Use type
- Open item
- Confidence
- Open
- Page / table / figure
- OPEN ITEM
- Notes
- Woodcutters, carpenters, sawyers, haulers, boat crews, repair crews, households, food, water, and feedback not integrated.
JUDG-RAMP-GATE Modeling judgment or control rule — Ramp required-function gate
- Input / variable
- Ramp required-function gate
- Source / author
- Model methodology
- Year
- 2026
- Value used
- replacement mechanism required
- Use type
- Methodology
- Confidence
- High
- Page / table / figure
- RampSystem_32
- Notes
- Ramp claims must be treated as route/lift/access systems with geometry, materials, surface maintenance, traffic capacity, and removal/rework burden.
OPEN-RAMP-GEOMETRY Unresolved evidence requirement — Ramp geometry / volume / phasing
- Input / variable
- Ramp geometry / volume / phasing
- Source / author
- Open model item
- Year
- n/a
- Value used
- TBD
- Use type
- Open item
- Confidence
- Open
- Page / table / figure
- OPEN ITEM
- Notes
- Requires selected ramp type, footprint, grade, width, turns, staging, final-course access, and phasing before quantitative integration.
OPEN-RAMP-PROD Unresolved evidence requirement — Ramp construction/maintenance productivity
- Input / variable
- Ramp construction/maintenance productivity
- Source / author
- Open source item
- Year
- n/a
- Value used
- TBD
- Use type
- Open item
- Confidence
- Open
- Page / table / figure
- OPEN ITEM
- Notes
- Inputs_03 B159:B161 are placeholders until source/engineering basis is assigned.
OPEN-RAMP-TRAFFIC Unresolved evidence requirement — Ramp traffic capacity / surface treatment
- Input / variable
- Ramp traffic capacity / surface treatment
- Source / author
- Open model item
- Year
- n/a
- Value used
- TBD
- Use type
- Open item
- Confidence
- Open
- Page / table / figure
- OPEN ITEM
- Notes
- Need lane width, passing/return paths, staging, surface friction/wear, maintenance, water/timber/paving, and repair disruption treatment.
SRC-METHOD-SOURCE-CONTROL Internal method / governance reference — Citation/source-control method
- Input / variable
- Citation/source-control method
- Source / author
- Internal model-control rule
- Year
- 2026
- Value used
- Load-bearing sources ranked by citation status and page/URL completeness
- Use type
- Methodology
- Confidence
- High
- Page / table / figure
- CitationControl_34
- Notes
- v0.40 adds source-status controls; no model value changes.
SRC-METHOD-AG-ROSTER Internal method / governance reference — Annual-yield agricultural producers
- Input / variable
- Annual-yield agricultural producers
- Source / author
- Internal model-control rule
- Year
- 2026
- Value used
- Annual crop yield is yearly output; roster factor 1.0
- Use type
- Prevents double-counting farmer availability
- Confidence
- High
- Page / table / figure
- FoodFeedback_28 / Model_04 B124,B128
- Notes
- Accounting/control rule; annual-yield producers differ from standing project-service crews.
SRC-METHOD-CAPACITY-BANDS Internal method / governance reference — Internal model-control rule
- Input / variable
- Internal model-control rule
- Source / author
- 2026
- Year
- Mobilization-capacity bands
- Value used
- 50k-500k capacity-band table; 150k reference screen
- Use type
- State-capacity stress-test framing
- Confidence
- Not a source/census claim; 9.375% is arithmetic only
- Page / table / figure
- KingdomCapacity_17
- Notes
- Replaces single-cutoff framing.
SRC-AERA-HEG External or cited source — Heit el-Ghurab / Giza worker settlement
- Input / variable
- Heit el-Ghurab / Giza worker settlement
- Source / author
- AERA
- Year
- var.
- Value used
- Worker town / provisioning context
- Use type
- Capacity-screen rationale
- Confidence
- High
- Page / table / figure
- https://aeraweb.org/projects/lost-city/
- Notes
- Supports organized provisioning; does not set a 150k ceiling.
SRC-NOVA-WORKFORCE External or cited source — Mainstream Giza workforce comparator
- Input / variable
- Mainstream Giza workforce comparator
- Source / author
- PBS NOVA / Lehner-Hawass context
- Year
- var.
- Value used
- 20,000-30,000 laborer search context
- Use type
- Comparator
- Confidence
- Medium
- Page / table / figure
- https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/pyramid/explore/builders.html
- Notes
- Public NOVA workforce context; use only as comparator, not as direct source for model calculations.
Open source: https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/pyramid/explore/builders.html
SRC-REDDING-2SITES External or cited source — Old Kingdom production-consumption network
- Input / variable
- Old Kingdom production-consumption network
- Source / author
- Redding 2013, "A Tale of Two Sites," in De Cupere, Linseele & Hamilton-Dyer (eds.), Archaeozoology of the Near East X, Peeters, pp. 307-322 (sight-verified); companion: Redding 2016, in Wenke, Redding & Cagle (eds.), Kom el-Hisn, Lockwood Press, pp. 139-203
- Year
- 2013
- Value used
- Kom el-Hisn / Heit el-Ghurab production-consumption model; author's stated conclusion: "labour, not land, must have been the limiting factor"
- Use type
- Provisioning context
- Confidence
- Medium
- Page / table / figure
- https://aeraweb.org/projects/lost-city/
- Notes
- AERA page lists Redding citation; formal publication details/page still needed for white paper.
SRC-BOSERUP-SURPLUS External or cited source — Preindustrial agrarian surplus/intensification logic
- Input / variable
- Preindustrial agrarian surplus/intensification logic
- Source / author
- Boserup
- Year
- 1965
- Value used
- Agrarian output is constrained by labor, seasonality, and intensification
- Use type
- General framework
- Confidence
- Medium
- Page / table / figure
- https://www.biw.kuleuven.be/aee/clo/idessa_files/boserup1965.pdf
- Notes
- General agrarian-surplus framework only; not a numerical limit or Egypt-specific ceiling.
Open source: https://www.biw.kuleuven.be/aee/clo/idessa_files/boserup1965.pdf
SRC-METHOD-SHAPING-GATE Internal method / governance reference — Internal WBS gate
- Input / variable
- Internal WBS gate
- Source / author
- 2026
- Year
- Shaping/fitting/setting scope
- Value used
- Quarry copper is not final fitting/setting copper
- Use type
- Prevents hidden scope loss
- Confidence
- Future module requires external productivity/tool support
- Page / table / figure
- Internal QA
- Notes
- Future integration remains required.
SRC-METHOD-SHAPING-DIAG Internal method / governance reference — Internal diagnostic method
- Input / variable
- Internal diagnostic method
- Source / author
- 2026
- Year
- Shaping/setting quantified diagnostic
- Value used
- Direct labor + roster + diagnostic population + copper/tool burden, not integrated
- Use type
- Makes pending scope visible
- Confidence
- Internal method; source/productivity gaps remain open
- Page / table / figure
- ShapingSetting_33
- Notes
- v0.41 diagnostic only; not a historical productivity claim.
OPEN-SHAPING-PROD Unresolved evidence requirement — Shaping/setting productivity basis
- Input / variable
- Shaping/setting productivity basis
- Source / author
- Open source item
- Year
- n/a
- Value used
- TBD
- Use type
- Open item
- Confidence
- Open
- Page / table / figure
- OPEN ITEM
- Notes
- Need sourced or explicitly bounded productivity for final trim, setting/alignment, casing-equivalent work, rework, and copper wear before M3 integration.
OPEN-CASING-SCOPE Unresolved evidence requirement — Casing stone count/equivalent-unit treatment
- Input / variable
- Casing stone count/equivalent-unit treatment
- Source / author
- Open source/model item
- Year
- n/a
- Value used
- TBD
- Use type
- Open item
- Confidence
- Open
- Page / table / figure
- OPEN ITEM
- Notes
- Define casing-equivalent units, finishing scope, Tura transport split, and relation to shaping/setting before M3 integration.
SRC-METHOD-SHAPING-READINESS Internal method / governance reference — Internal integration gate
- Input / variable
- Internal integration gate
- Source / author
- 2026
- Year
- ShapingSetting_33 M3-readiness review
- Value used
- Diagnostic quantified; integration rejected pending gates
- Use type
- Prevents premature M3 integration
- Confidence
- Internal control
- Page / table / figure
- ShapingSetting_33 A79:G96
- Notes
- v0.42 control only; no headline model-value change.
OPEN-SHAPING-COPPER-WEAR Unresolved evidence requirement — Final fitting/setting copper-tool wear
- Input / variable
- Final fitting/setting copper-tool wear
- Source / author
- Open source/model item
- Year
- n/a
- Value used
- TBD
- Use type
- Open item
- Confidence
- Open
- Page / table / figure
- OPEN ITEM
- Notes
- Quarry loss proxy remains placeholder; final fitting/setting tool wear may differ and must be sourced or bounded.
OPEN-SHAPING-PERSON-FEEDBACK Unresolved evidence requirement — Shaping/setting person-category and support feedback
- Input / variable
- Shaping/setting person-category and support feedback
- Source / author
- Open model item
- Year
- n/a
- Value used
- TBD
- Use type
- Open item
- Confidence
- Open
- Page / table / figure
- PersonCategoryMatrix_22 / WaterFeedback_21 / FoodFeedback_28
- Notes
- Before M3 integration, new crews need roster, household, water, food, sanitation, and processing treatment.
SRC-METHOD-TIMBER-DIAG Internal method / governance reference — Internal diagnostic method
- Input / variable
- Internal diagnostic method
- Source / author
- 2026
- Year
- Structural timber stock/replacement screen
- Value used
- Base active stock + annual replacement + gross cumulative procurement screen
- Use type
- Makes pending timber dependency visible
- Confidence
- Internal method; source/productivity gaps remain open
- Page / table / figure
- TimberSystem_31
- Notes
- v0.43 diagnostic only; not a historical timber inventory claim.
OPEN-TIMBER-STOCK-WBS Unresolved evidence requirement — Structural timber WBS inventory
- Input / variable
- Structural timber WBS inventory
- Source / author
- Open model item
- Year
- n/a
- Value used
- TBD
- Use type
- Open item
- Confidence
- Open
- Page / table / figure
- TimberSystem_31 A80:G91
- Notes
- Need source/bounds for sled rigs, ramp/track surface modules, anchors, levers, cribbing, boats, workshops, and repair reserve.
OPEN-TIMBER-SERVICE-LIFE Unresolved evidence requirement — Structural timber service life / turnover
- Input / variable
- Structural timber service life / turnover
- Source / author
- Open source/model item
- Year
- n/a
- Value used
- TBD
- Use type
- Open item
- Confidence
- Open
- Page / table / figure
- TimberSystem_31 A94:G100
- Notes
- Annual turnover is sensitivity-only until use-class service life is sourced or bounded.
OPEN-TIMBER-SPECIES-GRADE Unresolved evidence requirement — Species, grade, dimensions, conversion/reject rates
- Input / variable
- Species, grade, dimensions, conversion/reject rates
- Source / author
- Open source item
- Year
- n/a
- Value used
- TBD
- Use type
- Open item
- Confidence
- Open
- Page / table / figure
- SourceRegister_01 / CitationControl_34
- Notes
- Need cedar/acacia/tamarisk/sycamore/palm suitability, member sizes, reject rates, cut loss, handling loss.
OPEN-TIMBER-PROCUREMENT-LABOR Unresolved evidence requirement — Timber procurement/fabrication/transport labor
- Input / variable
- Timber procurement/fabrication/transport labor
- Source / author
- Open model item
- Year
- n/a
- Value used
- TBD
- Use type
- Open item
- Confidence
- Open
- Page / table / figure
- PersonCategoryMatrix_22 / WaterFeedback_21 / FoodFeedback_28
- Notes
- Woodcutters/import crews, carpenters, haulers, repair crews, boat/harbor handlers require roster/household/support feedback before M3.
OPEN-TIMBER-BOAT-RECURSION Unresolved evidence requirement — Timber transport boat/harbor recursion
- Input / variable
- Timber transport boat/harbor recursion
- Source / author
- Open model item
- Year
- n/a
- Value used
- TBD
- Use type
- Open item
- Confidence
- Open
- Page / table / figure
- Future river/harbor module
- Notes
- Structural timber procurement may require boats/harbor/repair timber and creates a feedback dependency.
SRC-METHOD-RAMP-DIAG Internal method / governance reference — Internal diagnostic method
- Input / variable
- Internal diagnostic method
- Source / author
- 2026
- Year
- Ramp material/traffic/removal diagnostic
- Value used
- Volume screens + material mass + construction/maintenance/removal labor + diagnostic population
- Use type
- Makes pending ramp-system burden visible
- Confidence
- Internal method; source/geometry gaps remain open
- Page / table / figure
- RampSystem_32
- Notes
- v0.44 diagnostic only; not a selected historical ramp reconstruction.
OPEN-RAMP-MATERIAL Unresolved evidence requirement — Ramp material source / placement method
- Input / variable
- Ramp material source / placement method
- Source / author
- Open model item
- Year
- n/a
- Value used
- TBD
- Use type
- Open item
- Confidence
- Open
- Page / table / figure
- RampSystem_32 A114:G126
- Notes
- Need material source, extraction, hauling, placement, compaction, stabilization, and double-spend treatment.
OPEN-RAMP-SURFACE Unresolved evidence requirement — Ramp/track surface maintenance method
- Input / variable
- Ramp/track surface maintenance method
- Source / author
- Open model item
- Year
- n/a
- Value used
- TBD
- Use type
- Open item
- Confidence
- Open
- Page / table / figure
- RampSystem_32 / TimberSystem_31 / RouteCapacity_12
- Notes
- Bare surface, wet surface, planking, paving, sleepers, mats, drainage, rut repair, and disruption need selected treatment.
OPEN-RAMP-REMOVAL Unresolved evidence requirement — Ramp removal / cutback / rework / final-access phasing
- Input / variable
- Ramp removal / cutback / rework / final-access phasing
- Source / author
- Open model item
- Year
- n/a
- Value used
- TBD
- Use type
- Open item
- Confidence
- Open
- Page / table / figure
- RampSystem_32 A102:G104 / A114:G126
- Notes
- Define whether ramp remains, is absorbed, is cut back, is removed, or is reconfigured during casing/final access.
OPEN-RAMP-PERSON-FEEDBACK Unresolved evidence requirement — Ramp crews person-category and support feedback
- Input / variable
- Ramp crews person-category and support feedback
- Source / author
- Open model item
- Year
- n/a
- Value used
- TBD
- Use type
- Open item
- Confidence
- Open
- Page / table / figure
- PersonCategoryMatrix_22 / WaterFeedback_21 / FoodFeedback_28
- Notes
- Ramp builders, maintainers, material handlers, traffic crews, and removal crews need roster, households, water, food, sanitation, processing, and administration before M3.
OPEN-RAMP-TRAFFIC-MODEL Unresolved evidence requirement — Ramp route traffic and staging model
- Input / variable
- Ramp route traffic and staging model
- Source / author
- Open model item
- Year
- n/a
- Value used
- TBD
- Use type
- Open item
- Confidence
- Open
- Page / table / figure
- RouteCapacity_12 / RampSystem_32
- Notes
- Need lane width, passing/return paths, staging, repair stops, turns, upper-course congestion, and simultaneous-team operations.
SRC-METHOD-RAMP-READINESS Internal method / governance reference — Internal integration gate
- Input / variable
- Internal integration gate
- Source / author
- 2026
- Year
- RampSystem_32 M3-readiness review
- Value used
- Diagnostic quantified; integration rejected pending gates
- Use type
- Prevents premature M3 integration
- Confidence
- Internal control
- Page / table / figure
- RampSystem_32 A114:G126
- Notes
- v0.44 control only; no headline model-value change.
SRC-METHOD-DIAG-INTEGRATION Internal method / governance reference — Diagnostic integration governance
- Input / variable
- Diagnostic integration governance
- Source / author
- Internal model-control rule
- Year
- 2026
- Value used
- DiagnosticIntegration_35 roll-up / readiness matrix
- Use type
- Methodology
- Confidence
- High
- Page / table / figure
- Internal QA
- Notes
- Diagnostic burdens are not additive headline totals; M3 entry requires readiness gates and feedback treatment.
SRC-METHOD-MODEL-ANCHORS Internal method / governance reference — Compatibility-safe canonical value table
- Input / variable
- Compatibility-safe canonical value table
- Source / author
- Internal model-control rule
- Year
- 2026
- Value used
- ModelAnchors_36
- Use type
- Cross-sheet reference hardening
- Confidence
- Internal control
- Page / table / figure
- ModelAnchors_36
- Notes
- Visible anchors favored over broad named-range conversion until Numbers round-trip behavior is proven.
SRC-METHOD-COMPAT-GATE Internal method / governance reference — Excel/Numbers compatibility and external integrity gate
- Input / variable
- Excel/Numbers compatibility and external integrity gate
- Source / author
- Internal model-control rule
- Year
- 2026
- Value used
- CompatibilityControl_37
- Use type
- Canonization control
- Confidence
- Internal control
- Page / table / figure
- CompatibilityControl_37
- Notes
- Round-tripped files require external error-token scan before canonization.
SRC-METHOD-STATUS-BASIS Internal method / governance reference — Status basis tags
- Input / variable
- Status basis tags
- Source / author
- Internal model-control rule
- Year
- 2026
- Value used
- LIVE / POLICY / MANUAL(date) / EXTERNAL(date)
- Use type
- Prevents hardcoded status sprawl
- Confidence
- Internal control
- Page / table / figure
- QAChecks_08 / CompatibilityControl_37
- Notes
- Status cells must disclose whether they are live, policy, manual review, or external scan result.
SRC-METHOD-SHEET-NAMES Internal method / governance reference — Sheet-name compatibility rule
- Input / variable
- Sheet-name compatibility rule
- Source / author
- Internal model-control rule
- Year
- 2026
- Value used
- ≤28 characters
- Use type
- Excel/Numbers name-drift prevention
- Confidence
- Internal control
- Page / table / figure
- CompatibilityControl_37
- Notes
- Long water-infrastructure sheet renamed WaterInfraAlt_27.
SRC-WENI-LEVY External or cited source — Maximum documented OK mobilization
- Input / variable
- Maximum documented OK mobilization
- Source / author
- Autobiography of Weni, 6th Dyn tomb inscription, Abydos (Lichtheim, Ancient Egyptian Literature Vol. I)
- Year
- c. 2300 BC
- Value used
- 'army of many tens of thousands', levied 5x
- Use type
- Comparator
- Confidence
- Medium
- Page / table / figure
- Lichtheim, AEL Vol. I, pp. 18-23 (The Autobiography of Weni) - verify against physical copy
SRC-PALERMO-SNEFRU External or cited source — OK military character (expeditionary levies)
- Input / variable
- OK military character (expeditionary levies)
- Source / author
- Palermo Stone royal annals, Snefru register (Wilkinson, Royal Annals of Ancient Egypt, 2000)
- Year
- c. 2600 BC
- Value used
- 7,000 Nubian captives, 200,000 cattle; temporary levies, no standing army
- Use type
- Context
- Confidence
- Medium
- Page / table / figure
- Wilkinson 2000, PS recto Snefru register (r.VI); translation section pp. 85ff - verify compartment against physical copy
SRC-MERER External or cited source — River transport operations anchor
- Input / variable
- River transport operations anchor
- Source / author
- Diary of Merer, Papyrus Jarf A/B, Wadi al-Jarf (Tallet, Les Papyrus de la Mer Rouge I, 2017)
- Year
- c. 2560 BC
- Value used
- 40-man phyle in ~200-man gang (pp. 15-17; log validation pp. 40-41, Sections AII, BI-II); 2-3 round trips/10-day week (pp. 23-25); ~70-80 t loads, 10-15 blocks x 2-3 t (pp. 25-26); 5-month window. All sight-verified 2026-07-11. English secondary: Tallet & Lehner 2022, The Red Sea Scrolls; harbor terms: Lehner 2020, "Merer and the Sphinx," Guardian of Ancient Egypt II, pp. 895-925
- Use type
- Direct
- Confidence
- High
- Page / table / figure
- Tallet 2017, Papyrus Jarf A/B - page verification OPEN ITEM